The Maoists in 'Lose-Lose Situation'

The recent escalating violence between the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF or MPRF) and the Maoists, and level of brutality involved therein, indicates that some groups are indeed well-prepared to answer the Maoists in the same language that the Maoists spoke and understood the best.

By Chattra Bahadur

We have had mixed results in terms of ‘achievements’ when we consider events that unfolded since April 2006. The ‘reinstatement’ of democracy, comprehensive peace treaty, renouncing of armed struggle by the Maoists, the SPA government, the Interim Parliament, proposed Constituent Assembly elections, etc were milestones. However, these path-breaking events were severely undermined by the lack of sincerity of the Maoists, indetermination and meekness of the SPA government, lack of contingency planning, and lack of proactive approach of all the major political parties. Though the Maoists are well placed in the Interim government, it is too early to comment on the performance of the Maoists ministers. It is also uncertain whether there would be any change in the functioning of the Maoists after joining the government.

Though it may be euphoric moment for the Maoists, the events are increasingly becoming difficult for them. Ultimately, they may be the only major political force facing ‘lose-lose’ situation. Their continued reliance on heavy-handedness has evoked widespread criticism from every sphere of the Nepalese society. The international community, with feedback from international donor agencies, has always expressed strong reservations regarding their style of functioning, actions and motives. Moreover, repeated and open violations of party directives by the party cadres have raised many questions regarding the party’s hold over its cadres and control mechanism that exists within the ‘dedicated’ and ‘disciplined’ Maoists.

The recent escalating violence between the MJF and the Maoists, and level of brutality involved therein, indicates that some groups are indeed well-prepared to answer the Maoists in the same language that the Maoists spoke and understood the best. And this does not augur well to the Maoists’ strategy of total domination either by terror or by indoctrination. If the MJF continues to retaliate against the Maoists in the future as well, Terai is most likely to slip away from the Maoists grip. This definitely spells doom to the electoral chances of the Maoists. At the same time, the Maoists understand that Terai would be dominant and vital political battlefield since the number of seats in Terai will see dramatic increase if population is given preference while determining number of representatives. Precisely for this reason, the Maoists do not want to accept that there is a possibility for them to lose their grip over Terai. In addition, the Maoists cannot also ignore the fact that the retaliation of the MJF may embolden other groups to actively fight back the Maoists’ coercion in the same manner.

Media, over the years, has provided strong impression that the Maoists have maintained tight hold over the hilly and remote areas. There are also reports that suggest minimal political activities of other political parties as a result of the Maoists’ pressure and intimidation. However, it is uncertain whether the Maoists would make any electoral gain of this situation. The level of animosity towards the Maoists, and huge social and economic costs paid by local population, amounts too great for them to vote en masse in favor of the Maoists. Of course, the Maoists can always resort to booth capturing, a potent weapon suggested by Comrade Gaurav (CP Gajurel) in Delhi and widely reported in national media. Again, given the sensitivity of situation, international pressure may prove strong deterrent for the Maoists to act insensibly.

The Nepalese media, which had been reticent in the past to criticize the Maoists, have gathered confidence and objectivity to evaluate and report the Maoists’ activities and implications of such actions. The national newspapers now feature comments and articles on a regular basis that point at shortfalls of the Maoists, shortcomings of their ideological base, and futility of mindless actions of the Maoists cadres. Since media has powerful influence to shape mindset of larger population, this may add further pressure on the Maoists to mend their ways and amalgamate themselves in democratic process.

International community at present has even larger role to shape the Nepalese politics and course of actions. Among the most influential power are the Americans, who have been in forefront and vocal to express their displeasure explicitly regarding the actions and motives of the Maoists. Moreover, extreme dislike of the Americans with respect to the Communist ideology, every move of the Maoists is likely to be closely watched and immediately commented upon. The European Union is likely to voice the same opinion as the Americans. India, which considers Nepal as its backyard, has number of reasons to be wary of the Maoists. The Indian perception is that growing Naxalism in states of Bihar and Jharkhand may receive further boost if the Maoists gain upper hand in the Nepalese political sphere. Thus, its own security concern may cause India not to desire further rise in the stature of the Maoists. With stock of the CPI (M) going down in the Indian politics, especially after Nandigram incident in West Bengal, the traditional backers of the Maoists are unlikely to influence the Indian stance and policy on the Maoists. In case of any eventuality, Indians can use incriminating evidence against the Maoists since Pasang, a Maoist cadre, was caught in Kashmir with money and LeT (enemy of Indian state) cadre while purchasing arms for the ULFA (another enemy of Indian state). Therefore, the Maoists’ room to maneuver has shrunk further.

Though the posture may be aggressive with right dosage of well-rehearsed revolutionary rhetoric, the Maoists leadership is well aware of the limited options they have. Instead of strong friends, they have powerful detractors watching every move they make and possibly devise ways to counter their every action. They are also aware that time is running out for them to make amends since their cadres have minds of their own to do as they please. And, importantly, they know that they have already lost little credibility they ever had. Thus, mounting pressure on the Maoists leadership from its own party cadres, domestic political situation, and international community may prove too huge to manage to their advantage. It is no wonder that they face ‘lose-lose’ situation.






23 responses to “The Maoists in 'Lose-Lose Situation'”

  1. savingnepal Avatar

    Just like I have been sincere in criticizing and ‘condemning’ Mr. Dinesh Wagle et. al. many times before on other articles, I would like to sincerely commend and congratulate them for a finely written analysis after a LONG TIME.

    I am the one who constantly accuses Wagle as being a “prostitute journalist,” but with fair and balanced articles like this, it can be felt that maybe Wagle is also maturing and listening to his readers.

    Wagle, I am sure even though you have angered many of your readers in the past, you are extremely brave for single-handedly fighting for freedom of expression even during the worst of times. How can we ever forget how this blog became the VOICE of Nepal for Nepalis living abroad. Exactly one year ago when the King had all powers at will, you still had the bravery to go forward and write your brains out against the King. THANK YOU.

    Responsible journalism is rampant in America and Britain and hopefully Wagle is also learning his lessons. Freedom of thoughts work both ways. Media has been rightfully accused in many places in history of being responsible for brainwashing people and of cynical propaganda, but as long as you keep involving the public in a ‘debate’ rather than one-sided views you are the winners, shapers and the protectors of the NEW FREE NEPAL.

    Thank you again for finally conceding (albeit not in crystal clear terms) that the Madhesis has been nothing but INSTRUMENTAL in finally showing the Maosits there rightful place in this country and standing up to their extremes. Madhesis themselves will have gained their true status of equal citizens of Nepal.

    Keep up the good work.

  2. Tulsi Belbase Avatar
    Tulsi Belbase

    Chattra Bahadur,

    In my opinion you are 100% right. Most of the Maoist Cadres are illiterate, brain washed young group, who do not have any vision for the country. No one can expect any thing good from Maoist. It’s downfall is sure and for that it will not take long time as their behaviors are same like terrorist. In other hand, only they have given the birth of the Madheshi Forum and many others like group. So, “as you sow so shall you reap” will apply on Maoist.

  3. ULFA Avatar

    Yesterday there was a small bite of interview of Krishna Bahadur Mahara, the information and communication minister, on the Miss Nepal contest that will be organized tomorrow. He said: “Personally I am against that competition and my ideology is against that. But this government is not ours alone. There are many other parties and our decision alone will not work on this.”

    You can interpret those lines as this: whatever we said about the peasant when we were out of government will have no value. The government will not stop the competition. So Maoists are slowly realizing their size and understanding that it’s really different to scream nonsense from the street and running the ministries.

  4. noname Avatar

    Wagle do care to report on how your SPAM ganglords have kidnapped 20 Marwaris in last 2 weeks and extorted 500 million rupees from them for making Naya Nepal. The sad part is that your incompetent Police is not even asked for help because Police is a Part of ‘shadyantra’.

  5. sagarmatha Avatar

    What everyone is thinking maoist accept to loose?? No way..

  6. Captain Crash Avatar

    “since their cadres have minds of their own to do as they please”. This line is 100% true. They have gun, they have been killing people and it is easy to be rebel then to be in government and please whole country.

  7. Kirat Avatar

    The more influence the Maoists loose-the better.

  8. B Avatar

    They are supposed to loose. The top leaders of the maoists have already made a deal with india. Now the SPA need india’s backing to exist in Nepal, the maoists need india’s backing to exist in Nepal and so does the King. So, if you ask me, the spa, the maoists and the king will live happily together for at least another 10 years. Who cares about the people when the deal has already been made among the bigger players. The maoist leaders wanted to crash their cadres with minimum damage and that is what they are doing. I wont be surprised if there is a rise of another maoist leader to lead the armed revolution from Nepal instead of India. The maoist cadres are slowly realizing that the present maoist leaders are just opportunists and what they need is another revolution. Only this time from within Nepal without any Indian influence. And i sincerely believe that is whats required. Let there be another revolution where the people will walk right into the parliament and the palace and rip all leaders’ hearts out. That is what is need for a new Nepal. A clean Nepal. We need people to fcuk all the top leaders, the royal family, the US ambassador, The Indian Ambassador, The UN officials and The UK ambassador. I say kill em all and let GOD SORT’EM OUT.

  9. sagarmatha Avatar

    SPAM stands for Stupid Policians’ Association under the threat of Maoist.

  10. b Avatar


    Thank you for advising me to change my name from your namesake.

    UWB: It seems B and b are different person here. And b seems to be the new one.

  11. matribhumi Avatar

    We all should fight against the Maoist, they are an army not political force. These guys are like the Taliban…shott and kill these idiots. Long live MJF.

  12. b Avatar

    Yeah b is the new one.

  13. Bhudai Pundit Avatar
    Bhudai Pundit

    Good analysis. I also think the same thing!

  14. manan Avatar


    You sound like a Maoist.

  15. Patriot Avatar

    good analysis – unfortunately, since SPA has been behaving equally badly, I cant figure who is the lesser evil. anyways, in current scenario a knuckle in the head of Maoists is much needed.

  16. matribhumi Avatar

    Hey what happened to the CD that we were all supposed to see, that Prachanda was supposed to show ? Any idea ? Maybe now that Mahara is the info minister, we can see it on Nepal TV.

  17. B Avatar


    I am not a maoist. Not at all. Infact, i have been (and still am) a supporter of constitutional monarchy. However, this is simply too frustrating. Nepal is going down. Pretty soon it may not even exist. So, if you ask me, Nepal can survive without democracy, spa, maoist or the king but without Nepal we will loose our identity. Our laid back way of life. Without Nepal, we will end up being just faces in the gigantic india and no one will even notice us. Our history, our pain, our struggle, our deaths,our tears and our joys would just cease to exist. So, if for nepal to exist, there is a need of another bloody revolution ( as in people walking into the parliament and dragging these idiots out infront of the people to bring justice unto them) so be it and count me in.

  18. madheshi Avatar

    they most have to go they kill 14000 the inocent people, and making more army cader and taking their saliry from our taxes, nepal is already one of the most poorest country but it feeds 50 percent of his budget to army persons. why should we need that things which makes us poor.

  19. p Avatar

    Tame the Maoists

    The Pioneer Edit Desk

    Koirala can’t ignore this task

    Despite the formation of an interim Government in Nepal, under the leadership of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, of which the Maoists are now a part, internal conflicts in that country, largely instigated by Prachanda’s thugs, have not ceased. On the contrary, recent developments suggest that Maoist muscle-flexing continues unabated. Obviously, the interim Government has quite a task at hand, not the least of which is the restoration of rule of law, for which the Maoists have scant regard, before the elections scheduled for June. This is a task complicated by the fact that the Maoists, now part of the Government, have not ceased their criminal intimidatory acts. For example, a day after the Maoists joined the interim Government after much haggling, some of their cadre issued an extortion notice to a higher secondary school constructed with Indian assistance. Earlier, the Maoists have targeted Indian businesses and Indians working in Nepal’s hospitality industry, daring Mr Koirala to act against them. The situation in the Terai speaks volumes about Mr Koirala’s ability – or willingness – to rein in the Maoists who have decided to cut Madhesis out of the political decision-making process and deny them their rightful share in both power and resources. The Madhesis are being discriminated against for the simple reason that they have refused to toe the Maoists’s anti-India line to which Mr Koirala, it would appear, has succumbed.

    But if Prachanda and his armed brigands, whose murderous ways have now been legitimised by their inclusion in the interim Government, believed that they could browbeat the Madhesis into submission, they have been proved wrong. This week there has been a huge protest mobilisation by the Madhesis against the “Government’s repressive policy”, which caused the closure of the Terai plains. This comes in the wake of a blockade, carried on for the last two months, of the main trading points between India and Nepal. Unless Mr Koirala makes it a point to override Prachanda’s objections, which flow from his vision of a homogeneous society which will genuflect only at the altar of Maoism, and reach out to the Madhesis in a meaningful manner, he may end up spending most of his time fighting a blaze that, sooner rather than later, will scorch Kathmandu. In any event, by now there is sufficient evidence to prove that the Maoists have not kept their part of the deal – brokered and celebrated by the current regime in New Delhi and certain bureaucrats in South Block who are eager to do the bidding of their political masters – which has been provided by the UN observers in Nepal. Prachanda’s armed men still roam around without any hindrance, flaunting their ill-gained legitimacy as partners in power in Kathmandu, as the decrepit leaders of Nepal’s once mainstream parties watch helplessly.

  20. Sasanka Avatar

    Everyone is eagerly waiting for the picture to get clearer, who wins that is quite certain, new forces are going to take control of the governance, administration. Maoists have ruled large swathes of territory and has enough ground support to defeat the bastards of the CPN, CPML and others. What is necessary is the representatives of the marginalised, Dalit, janjatis, Madhesis and Minorities reach the house. And that is going to happen. Half the problem would be solved once the bastards are defeated. It is very necessary for the oppressed communities to use the power of the ballot properly, which would mean resorting to bloc and tactical voting. CPN ml and Mr Maddhav is changing his complexion, colour, he had Dalit, Janjati and Madhesis chosen as ministers in the last shuffle or inclusion, it’s is big surprise, it shows that the fellows are stuttering, tottering and it is a good sign, it proves that the monster is about to collapse.

    By the way, he can seek votes in Sanskrit, he has really championed the causeof education, when asked for primary education made sanskrit compulsory, to those who can’t even speak Nepali. Maddhav why the change in heart, your kin is calling your policy as ‘jadgaman’ and inviting the ‘battiwalinees’, see how much you have betrayed them. But political compulsion is really bad, you understand it. About NC. Deuba, you can do deuba ,deuba with a begging bowl in one hand and shastras on the other at the banks of the Ganges. and Koirala, you are ‘murda’. Well NC won’t go for affirmative action and reservation, others who support that should include that in their manifesto, 2-3, % reservation is alms and the oppressed and dalits are not seeking alms, bhikk, khairat, and according to the shastras written by the brahmnis and followed by the rulers and others the right to beg is reserved for some other community and not the dalits, and of course the dalits have rejected the shastras. Reservation is reparation, compensation for the oppression and exclusion of centuries and it is very meagre, that the dalits have asked for,but there is no alternative to reservation, it must be guaranteed by the constitution, as constitutional safeguards. Dalit ethnic groups shall have reserved constituences in all regions or states.

    The intellectuals are stepping in, coming with ideas, schemes, but any scheme that does not support reservation is not acceptable, these so called intellectuals’ churn out huge data, texts, and pose as if they are concered, concern they do have but of their own caste, ethnic community, most of these fellows speak against reservation, giving puerile reasons, but of course pretending to be secular and their analysis to be unprejudiced and objective. Acutally what really is working at the back of their minds is they think reservation, quota, is giving too much,they feel their community is losing, but the irony they cannot tell that thing openly for they are independent minded, liberal, secular scholars. But lying beneath always is the conscious effort to stifle the dalits and protect the interests of their community. Quota is effective, easy to monitor and it shows, its effect is visible. Enumeration of castes and ethnic groups must be done, we are not going to accept the broth-the census, the bastards have prepared with all the figures cooked up and manipulated and the reservation must be based on the fresh census done by a secular, independent agency. About diversity, rather differences or disparities in the living standards of the dalit groups that can be taken into account, the amount of support can be tailored accordingly, but there would be no exclusion of any dalit ethnic group. Kami Damais, sarkis Chamars, Dausadhs, Mochis all are ethnic groups, caste must be a basis for identifying the underprivileged communities but that is it, other aspects of caste system shall not be given importance, Varna Vevastha Brahmin haruko thagi khanay,looti khanay, magi khanay bhada ho.

    Any settlement must be acceptable to the dalits, the settlement reached upholding the interests of those 5-20% of the privilized communities and with no any means for empowering the dalit communities would not be acceptable, the government then would be the government of those 5-21% of the people and not of dalits and others and the laws framed by them would be the laws meant and applicable to them,not todalits.It would be the bounden duty of each Dalit to bring to power that government that is of the Dalits, that is, the Dalits have a share and they should resort to any measure to do that. Govt , Country, it must be for all, it is simple. The old order is a rotten order and it must go. Maoists are acceptable because they speak sense and promise welfare and prosperity of all, not of a single class or community.

    Jai Babasaheb Ambedkar!.

    Best wishes to all Ambedkarities on the occasion of Ambedkar Jayanti that falls on !4 th April.
    Carry forward the teachings of Mahatma Phule and Periyar, start and carry forward the Self Respect Movement.

  21. Shaman Avatar


    I am not sure whether Ambedkar ever taught hatred towards any community/communities for uplift of another community/communities. That is something very new to me.

    You are contradicting yourself when you write statements like these “caste must be a basis for identifying the underprivileged communities but that is it, other aspects of caste system shall not be given importance”. You want to reject Brahmanical creation of caste system but you wish to continue with it to identify underprivileged communities. That is quite illogical because I do not know how can you segregate castes from caste system. As far as I understand from your writing, you have categorized all the Brahmins as evil. It means you are giving importance to other aspects of the caste system. When you yourself are not free from biasness, how can you expect others to be?

    You must be the first person to state that Population Census is biased and data is cooked up. UN was thoroughly involved in the Census activities such as collecting data and verifying the authenticity of data. It is new to me that UN is also involved in partisian politics of Nepal by manipulating ethnic data.

    Ambedkar had a political party called Republican Party of India (RPI). It is still existent in Maharashtra but with virtually no electoral base. I assume that you know the reason why. It is because the leaders of RPI cannot decide who is super savior of Dalits – so they have three/four factions and in elections they end up losing all the seats. Another savior of Dalits happens to be Mayawati of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh. I also hope that you know that in current elections in Uttar Pradesh she gave about 40% of Vidhan Sabha seats to upper caste candidates against whom she had fought all her life. So it is political compulsion that you cannot rule without involvement of Manuwadis. Thirdly, you must have also read about two recent court judgments in India. First one relates to SC reserving judgment on the issue of reservation for OBCs (Other Backward Castes) in premier educational institutes in India. This judgment is profound because it mentions that there exists ‘creamy layer’ in marginalized sections which enjoys all the perks and facilities of reservation and also obstruct others from taking advantage of ‘Constitutional’ rights to uplift themselves. Thus that ‘creamy layer’ must be removed from taking advantage of reservation and ensuing further reservation. Second one is relating to the High Court decision to remove minority status of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh because they have already crossed threshold of 18% of population of Uttar Pradesh. Therefore your wise words of uniting Dalits to form Dalit government for Dalit people may sound noble but history shows it has not happened as yet.

    PS: I quoted Indian examples because Ambedkar, Phule and Periyar are all Indians.

  22. veejayandra Avatar

    Every one knows MJF

    I think, it is use less to disscuss about the voilance under the name of MJF, now we must go to the root of the backing-hands of MJF. It is almost clear that Upendra Yadav did these everything after dinner with US envoy, and as this is a big organised programme, US envoy also have to take moral jimmewari on this event. But those who do not want to see this or behaves as they have not seen, they are the true ememies of nepalese people. US is trying to make a puppet government in our Nepal to well handle world’s big market SHINO-INDIAN population. No doubt, Nepal is in transitional period, and the single way remained for US intension is to stop CA at any cost. This is now almost sure that CA will not be held on Asar 6, and Seven parties are seeking for new date around Kartik, knowing who is behind this, they are not going to the root.
    I guess that within 3 or 4 days, a new foundation or binding energy for SPA and Maoist will be declared, and it will be well handeled. If SPA helps for reaction, then they will also be overthrown along with Monarchy under leadership of Moist by people’s genuine need -NEW NEPAL. (Reader must not be confused that veejayandra is a maoist party member, he is just a supporter student.)

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