….because you never know the result of elections in advance!
If there is anything that is making CPN Maoist feel regrettable in the post-poll scenario that must be their pre-poll emphasis on the Proportional Representation (PR) system for the Constituent Assembly elections. On the other side of the political spectrum Nepali Congress must be feeling heavily indebted to the former rebels for Maoist’s insistence on the PR. Both of these parties were at the opposing end regarding PR: NC never fully favored it, Maoists wanted fully PR system. (Finally it was agreed in December that about 60 percent of the total CA seats would be elected through PR and about 40 percent through First Past the Post, FPTP or winner takes it all system. That meant out of total 601 seats, 240 for FPTP, 335 for PR and remaining 26 to be appointed by the PM.)
Now that decision appears to have come as a savior to NC who suffered humiliating defeat in the FPTP. The party must be thanking God for agreeing to that albeit under tremendous pressure. The party that was so confident about winning in FTPT has lost miserably while the party that thought it would do badly in the FTPT they are couple of seats away from getting majority and there is still couple of dozen seats to be counted! The party that thought high percentage of the PR seats in the CA would do harm to its winning possibility is now hoping to increase its seats significantly through that. And for Maoists: only if there were no freaking PR, we would have enjoyed a cool majority in the CA! – D Wagle
How seats will be split under PR?
Here is the formula:
The Election Commission (EC) will use the Modified Sainte Lague Method (MSLM) to allocate 335 seats under the proportional representation (PR) electoral system.
MSLM is a mathematically complicated method and difficult to explain. However, allocation of seats under this system does not vary significantly from a simple calculation of number of seats based on the votes garnered by the political parties. For instance, based on simple calculations, if a party wins 30 percent of the votes it will get 100.5 seats out of the 335 seats up for grabs under the PR system.
In such a case, 0.5 of one seat is likely to go to waste. MSLM tries to minimize such wastage -part of the reason why this method is use to allocate seats. MSLM also relatively favors small parties.
Based on total vote counts under the PR system as of Tuesday afternoon, the MSLM method will give the Maoists 125 seats, the UML 93 seats, NC 90, MPRF 16 and RPP 11 seats respectively.