Does Prachanda have a chance of winning? The answer is yes and no.
By Bishnu Budhathoki
the Kathmandu Post
Maoist Chairman Prachanda was born in a remote village of Kaski district and brought up in Chitwan district, but he has chosen Kathmandu Constituency-10 and Rolpa Constituency- 2 to contest the upcoming Constituent Assembly (CA) election. Why did he decide to contest election from Kathmandu Constituency-10 ? More importantly, what are his chances of winning ?
This constituency, with a total of 63,788 voters, includes Kirtipur Municipality and 12 surrounding VDCs. Over 57 percent of the electorate reside in villages and ethnic communities (Newars, mainly Jyapu, and Tamangs) and Dalits have a strong domination.
There are at least four reasons why Prachanda chose this constituency.
First, the Newars of Kirtipur have a deep-seated resentment against the Shah dynasty for alleged atrocity by Prithivi Narayan Shah’s troops during his unification campaign. Prithivi Narayan conquered Kirtipur only after a third attempt and it was there that he lost his key lieutenant, Kalu Pandey, and his brother lost an eye. So, when his forces finally conquered Kirtipur they unleashed unspeakable atrocities- something that has stayed with the local people as a “chosen trauma”.
The Maoist chairman is well aware of this resentment and wants to exploit it to the fullest. Addressing a mass meeting in Kirtipur on Monday, Prachanda said his victory would be a revenge against the feudal monarchy. The Maoists have also calculated that they would attract a lot of Dalit and Tamang votes in this constituency.
Secondly, Kirtipur, but mainly Panga, Chithubihar and Machhegaun and the southern belt of this constituency — Talkudundechaur, Dhakshinkali and Chhaimale VDCs, which border Makwanpur district — were used by Maoists as their “shelter area” in the Valley during the decade-long insurgency. The Maoists have at least 30 “whole time” members from this area and 12 district committee members.
Third, the radical left has always had a strong local support base here. During the parliamentary election in 1994 and local elections in 1997 the ultra-left United People’s Front (UPF) bagged around 3,000 votes. Today, most UPF leaders and cadres, including former chairperson of Panga VDC Dilip Maharjan, have joined Maoists.
“We have a strong party base and organization in the area,” said Maharjan, who is now a Maoist lawmaker. People’s Front Nepal (PFN), which has close ties with the Maoist party, has not fielded any official candidate from this constituency, possibly to facilitate Prachanda’s candidacy.
The fourth reason is purely psychological. The candidacy of their party’s chairman from the district in which the capital is located means a lot of psychological boost to Maoist party cadres and also lifts the party’s standing in the eyes of the international community.
“While urban elites and the international community have said that Maoists have a hold only in the hinterlands and among the lower class population, Prachanda’s candidacy from near the capital is meant to be a reposte to just that,” opined Professor Krishna Khanal.
Does Prachanda have a chance of winning?
The answer is yes and no. The CPN-UML has the strongest organization and support base in the constituency. In the 1991 election, charismatic UML general secretary the late Madan Kumar Bhandari won from here. UML leader Krishna Gopal Shrestha was also elected from here, in 1994.
Bhandari won the election by a margin of 8,547 votes and Shrestha won double the vote of his rival. However, in 1999, Tirtha Ram Dangol of the Nepali Congress won from the same constituency, taking advantage of a vertical split in the UML.
But the total vote bagged by the UML and the breakaway faction ML between them was 22,261 while Dongol won the election with 18,587 votes.
During the 1997 local elections, the UML had won at least 10 wards out of 19 as well as the mayoral and deputy mayoral race, whereas the NC secured victory in just five wards. Similarly, out of 12 VDCs, the UML won nine.
UML candidate Sanu Shrestha has the advantage of the UML’s strong organization and sympathy from the Newar community, the dominant ethnic group in the constituency.
NC candidate from the constituency, Rajendra Kumar KC, has a strong support base in six southern VDCs — Saukhel, Sheshnarayan, Talkudundechwor, Chhaimale, Dakshinkali and Chalnakhel. These VDCs alone have over 16,000 votes.
Prachanda’s chances of winning depend mostly on two things. First is whether or not he is able to reach some kind of tacit understanding with the UML leadership to get himself elected. Talks about electoral alliances with the UML in some selected constituencies are still going on.
Second, it depends on to what extent the Newar community defect from the UML to support Prachanda. One should not forget that this constituency has always welcomed outsiders with charismatic personalities. Madan Bhandari was a case in point.
If the UML throws all its weight behind Sanu Shrestha the competition in this constituency will be triangular and the outcome uncertain.
50 responses to “Four Reasons Why Prachanda Chose Kathmandu-10 to Fight CA Election”
People of Kathmandu Constituency-10, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE do no, I repeat PLEASE DO NOT vote for Prachanda. We cannot let this killer make a mess of our Country.
give him a chance to elect. we can see weather maoist can or can not change the country. we already seen n c, uml but it is time to see maoist.
New nepal is not possible by old thought.
lets give chance to maoist for once.
pheri , Aru party ka ganhaeka sungoor haru lai vote diera k faida.
please think this throughly & decide.
New Nepal is possible by leader with good vision.
Prachanda ko tyasto kunai vision chhaina, khali khorko sapana matra chha, nepal ko rasatrapati hune.
Jun byakti le jana yuddha ko name ma 14000 Nepali ko jyan ko bali liyo tyaslai jitaunu bhaneko “sadhu lai suli, chor lai chautaro” bhannu barabaar ho.
Kina ta prachanda ra usko company le educational kranti, industrial kranti garenan? kina hatiyaar kai kranti gare?
kewal satta ko lagi…
Kirtipur ka janata ra rolpa ka janata ho.. aauta shosak gyane lai hataera arko shosak prachande lai leraune kripa nagarau.
Desh banauna ramro soch chahinchha, hatiyaar le desh bandaina
DO not elect him from constitutuency 10, Sanu Shrestha is well deserving, and is only running from here, while Prachanda will win from Rolpa, so he has a seat confirmed, but this deserving candidate needs to win, and Prachanda needs to lose from KTM to humble him.
maosit supremo is a talasmanic leader .he will win undoubtedly.the person who has a clear vision for new nepal and struggle for the republican nepal political transition from monarchy to repoublic the credibility goes to prachanda and so he will win and must win.such charasmatic leader will do some dramatic change in nepali politics so we have to give a chance for such visionary leader.
if nepelese peoploe have the brain and conscious then they will never believe that person who killed the mass of people and looted several banks and on the basis of that person there is political and economical crisis in nepal and before some days he threated the citizens of that country where he is living on the opening of the fm you can think that he told nepelese have to decide that how they will give the chance to rule in the country by peace or by agian fighting or killing . do you think the way is polite and a people who is now leader is still threating words if he will win then what he will do there are so many matter for that reason we can think he is not only unsuitable but also one of the base of the crime for nepal
we have seen so many moments so i think there is no necessary to see again whatever they will do like is it good to make a group like y c l to disturbing the people
so i think it is not necessary to elect him
Mass murderer Puspa Kamal Dahal, your days are numbered!!!
Interesting analysis, Bishnu.
I think Prachanda will win. I want him to win from Kathmandu-10 and I also want him to lose in Rolpa. More than that, I want to see Maoist win a respectable position in the constituent assembly so that it will be very hard, almost impossible, for any elements within the Maoist party to start another kind of unrest and even war in Nepal. I also don’t want Maoists win majority in the assembly. That would invite another problem in Nepal. The assembly must be hung, just like this interim parliament so that parties will have to unite together and work together for the betterment of the country without the feeling of marginalized or otherwise.
.. I think .. Prachandra Should win .. Let’s See Wat Maoist can do … else We have no other chance to look upon .. They are the ones with the most young and female .. I think Moist should win ..
.. I think .. Prachandra Should win .. Let’s See Wat Maoist can do … else We have no other chance to look upon .. They are the ones with the most young and female candidates.. I think Moist should win ..
People like TTT prachande and his supporters like ramesh, dewaz, and all nepali should go to hell. All of you should f’ck yourselves.
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Teacherr Turned Terrorist turned Bhittey Rastrapati (TTTBR) murderer Pushpa Kamal Dahal still goes around threatening everyone elese that if his party can’t win the CA eletions then he will start a “new” revolution. The benefit of being a terrorist is that you neverr have to jsutify what you are saying because the rest of the world, according to your rhetoric, is your enemy. Pushpa Kamal as fooled the Nepalese people, he has tortured and killed thousands of people, his spechees and deeds still reflect this terrorist guerrilla background and it will be delightful to see this former teacher with verry high apirations be reduced to the walls that currently portray him as Nepal’s President. We can’t have the dubious distinction of having the a presidet who had the most bloody past in the world. Pushpa Kamal and his shadow ceremonial Baburam should be made extinct from Nepali politics.
an guess what– Bhittey rastrapati Pushpa Kama’s daughter is also given party ticket like cerermonial Baburam’s wife and all other relatives of the key maoists leader who all along have portrayed themselves as fiighting feudalism, autocracy, dynasties, nepotism, exclusion, and the list goes on. ut when it comes to practice, our friends with terrorist background have made sure that all their close relatives are given party tickets. so much for the new Nepal..
oh plz people do not vote for this criminal prachanda…..at least from kathmandu where people are more literate and are obvious about dirty and bloody politics of maoists. besides Nepali Congress candidate from the same constituent no 10 mr. Rajendra K.C is way better candidate who has devoted his life in social work for the region and if given chance this man will even better rise up to occasion and commit himself to work much better.
Down with TTTBR murderer Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Well said ‘guyfromktm’. Everyone needs to know what they are up to.
If he is elected and does not get his way, he will simply just return to killing.
wat’s goin on here read this
I see that one or two think Prachanda is “charismatic” – if you call making roaring speeches with threats and trying to wheel and deal a victory in Kathmandu 10 by cosying up to Madhav Nepal to tell UML followers to LET Prachanda win – then I guess you think that is charismatic.
Charismatic is when you win the hearts of the people without having to RIG the polls by deals (example would be the democratic primaries in the US between Hillary and Obama). Charismatic would be walking into the constituency to talk to people without being followed by hundreds of armed goons who block roads and create more difficulty for the people there. Charismatic would be someone who can use wit to gather people not fear, guns and hollow rhetoric.
Now I hope he loses not only in 10, but Rolpa also.
Only an answer to the last part of the article, “will PKD” will win?
No he will not unless applying wrong tactics. Maoist don’t have organizational base as correctly mentioned. Their arm struggle was not popular one either in KTM. Maoist are not revolutionary any more. They are trying to defend that they are revolutionary. Recent Terai revolution has proven their revolutionary ideology as a fake and only for power gaining.
Newars probably will not vote for Brahmin after knowing that theseBrahmins were against terai revolution- a symbolic in a sense for Janjatis and other group as well.
I have not heard speech of PKD. From his interview on TV to BBC and Indian Channel, I am not convienced that he has capacity to make a strong case. May be he does better interview in Nepali.
You have the good analysis but the conclusion of not winning or winning is not good. We have seen all the partys running government; so-called communist party, UML, royalist NC and others. We don’t have a ray of hope from them. We know that Maoists are rebels and has killed several people during their 10 years bloodshed war and so on. But, we do still have a ray of hope cause they have come to the mainstream of politics and we also remember that the constituent assembly election was their main agenda since 10 years. If YCL and maoists-affiliated-unions will be strictly controlled for their misdeeds by PRACHANDA (we still do hope for that), then, Maoists will win the election with great support from all Nepalese around the globe. And, they will definitely make our own NEPAL, our Nepal, with new vision of no-corruption-at-all, no-nepotism, no-favouritism and a lot of employments……………….. JAI NEPAL
My two cents … Prachanda will win, if not the election than after that. The CA elections are being held not for Nepalis but for a wider geopolitical purpose. The Maoists will gain full control of the state in the chaos after the CA polls.
The question is whether they can retain power after that. I think they will. The Maoists have deftly opened the door to royalists in consultation with the Chinese. Don’t be surprised if Maila Sahu one day joins the Maoists as chief patron. The Indians won’t have a choice since their lackeys — the mainstream parties — have hopelessly lost their ground. Delhi will cultivate the Baburam faction. The Americans aren’t stupid either. They are doing business not only with Chinese communists but also the Vietnamese who handed them their first military defeat. The man to watch here is C.P. Gajurel.
Don’t worry, the Maoists won’t kill or exile their opponents. Sooner or later, they will join the party. As for the people, half of them are temperamentally and historically inclined to worship those in power. The other half will probably keep quiet for want of an alternative. Welcome to the New Nepal.
Well ….. and then there is the madhesh. I think the future of Nepali politics is not in the maoists hands but in the hands of madhesi parties. They also have not been tried and tested, infact all icluding the maoists have been tested in government for the last year and we still got zilch. So watch that space.
He is safe if he wins or he will be shot dead……………………..father of maoist
It seems that the country will divide into two i.e. madhes and pahad after CA, as both groups are not going to surreneder their stands. Prachanda have high hope of being president of Pahad. What a pity to we Nepali…
Wait, I’m confused. Isn’ t this election based on proportional representation. Meaning that the people of Kathmandu-10 can vote for a party, but not a candidate?
On another note. I hope that Prachanda and his whole family dies a horrible death. They have spent the last 11 years destroying Nepal. To hell with losing, I want to see Prachanda in physical agony.
It is important that the maoist party wins some seats, But it is equally important that Sanu Shrestha wins and Prachanda loses badly. Because we should send the message that we have no space for Dictators in this nation. We have space for all thoights but not for blood thirsty dictators. We have to end this voting for personalities and their dictotorial rule whether it be Pranchanda or GPK. Then we will realise what loktantra and power to the people mean.
No way prachanda will win from KTM area 10.
Kirtipur Jyapus are not soo naive, how I know I am one of them.
Despite his popularity among some of the BRAIN WASHED people over here, his recent public assembly was complete flop. HE HAD TO, I REPEAT HE HAD TO bring in trucks fully loaded people from some neighbouring districts to hear his NONSENSE speech.
Everyone knows how this HITLER gathers people, with THREAT. How i know ? I run a small carpet factory in my small town. Everytime there is some kind of assembly people from MAOIST COME to my place to take all the workers in the RALLY. If I dont agree, I will be PUNISHED for not supprting.
So, thousands of people like me and others WILL NEVER SUPPORT such dictator. How can victims like us believe the country will be any better in future under this DEMON’s hand ?
it is not a matter parchanda will win from ktm or not but……we have to see wht they will do……..but i dont think cpn maosit will win all over the country. but lets hope for two co,mmunist party that is uml and maoist , because we have not seen the real rules of uml for five years . that;s the matter. and sent the nc in the hell………….who had turned this country like this from the last years, any way jai nepal and jainepali
Puspa Dahal Will be assassinated by Indian intelligence agency RAW.
Also, one quick comment. People comment about INDIA interfering in Nepal politics, but I say that currently the prime minister of Nepal IS AN INDIAN, so it is no surprise.
i am not sure, but in one of the early television interview prachanda said that he will nto play active role in politics after peaceprocess, Am i wonr or right no idea, but i remember the journalist asking me adn baburam ” so you guys will stay like mahatma gandi of india”
any way they are also greedy for political power an dmonye hehehehe jo aaye pani tyai ho nepal ma, i think untill and unless good education system is not establish nothing or no one can change this nation
Q. Do you want to be leader of this country? Head of state?
A It depends on this political movement and how the events proceed. Our movement is not for me to be the head of state. This movement is to grant democratic rights to Nepali people and secure a better future for them. It’s not for me to be a head of state. If this movement goes on and if the situation arises, then if need be, and if necessary for the Nepali people, I am of course ready for it. But I also want to clarify that – from the lessons of the 20th century communist states – we want to move to a new plane in terms of leadership – where one person doesn’t remain the party leader or the head of state. This discussion is going on within our party, on the subject of leadership, how the leadership should develop; even after the state is captured, how to institutionalize the subject of leadership and how to prepare new leaders, how to prepare lakhs [hundreds of thousands] of successors to them. What were the negative experiences of the 20th century in which people who should have been more powerful and should have had more rights, could not get them? We are studying this. Why it could not happen during Stalin’s time, how much of this happened in Mao’s time – we are studying this and we are in the process of developing a new system of thought. The question of being head of state is not a major question. The major question is the development of ideology which would globally uplift and give rights to the working class – our focus is on
developing that ideology. That’s why people might have a difficult time understanding us. Those who see us with 20th century eyes would not understand us because we are talking about democracy. In the 20th century, totalitarianism was widely propagated. People might find it surprising. The main difference in us is when we talk about Marxism-Leninism-Maoism and their ideology, we believe that it has to be developed. Just practising it is not enough. To protect it, practice it and develop it is necessary. The responsibility of developing it falls on every scientific thinking person. After the 10 years of our struggle for people, we believe this responsibility falls on us, and we are thinking about it.
yes … i remember clearly prachanda saying all this, but then hot air is easy to blow. All he is interested in is power – the madhesh movement exposed him.
come on……post a senseful thought…
nepal didn’t have gone to CA polls….we should have directly done a parliamentary election..in the name of CA…thousands of millions of dollars (hamro deshko) are being wasted….
and why should we support MAOIST(prachanda)? someone said….NEPALI Congress did nothing, UML did nothing, so lets try Maoist? Come on , the goverment is not a KABADDI GAME, where you try things out….
Prachanda should not win, but looks he will win.
IF he had guts he would have elected from AREA 5 with KAMAL THAPA>…….darayera dakshinkali ko kuna ma gayo…and here……dakhinkali always has been a blessing to KINGS>……so chances are PRACHANDA WILL LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE
Without a great pain for the good of the people and the nation, Prachand and his colleague did not take up the arms. He is not only just a very good person, he has abilities to organize and mobilize people for the country’s development. No Nepali ever dared to contest to be the “President” of Nepal. By declaring this he is forcing to change the state of stagnated minds of so many people and making them think that a son of the soil can and should take up the responsibility of the country, not always be the slave of the Kings and the feudal lords. There is a great opportunity for the country to change.
Nobody is interested in Prachandra.
People like money and their own culture.
The way to this is hard work.
Maoist must win
Lets give chance to Maoist, we have already gave chance and seen, none of other leaders could done anything for Nepal and nepali peoples, except worming their chairs
the problem with giving a chance to the maoists is that it’s obvious we will be in a bigger mess then we already are and irreversibly so if we give them a chance. It’s like saying let’s give a chance to the Madhesi’s to run the country. Infact the maoists have also been in government and performed worst – madhesis have’nt been given that chance so lets do it – are you for that REAL NEPALI? You see on these grounds your argument does not carry any water.
Also, madhes cleary make up 50% of Nepal popuklation. So rightfully they should run the nation. Pklus they are the only group who has not run the shouw – the maoists have also had a chance and what we got – shortage of pertrol, water, electricity, thugeery, law and order breakdown, murders, economic breakdown etc etc. Infact worse thean UML and Congress performance. Not to forget 13000 killed, unlike madhesis.
How can we submit the future of our country at the hands of a power-thirsty killer?
I travelled to Nepal 4 times during the “People’s War” to work as an NGO in the most remote and poorest villages in the country. The Maoists took everything that these poor people were not resourceful enough to hide from them. Prachandra’s economic theories are counter to what every productive country in the world implements. I love the people and country of Nepal as much as I would if I was a citizen. It is very disturbing to think that your human rights and economic well being could get worse. Be careful who you vote for!
P.S. I’ve seen your story on UN “volunteers” on this blog. The NGO I worked with demands that we pay our own way, i.e. airfare and accommodation and we use our holiday time from our regular jobs at home. Also, we aren’t offered, nor would I accept any expenses for any of my time in Nepal.
In fairness, my group was never disturbed by the Maoists. However, I would still argue that a national government formed by the Maoists would end any semblance of the rule of law and observation of human rights. Also, the domestic inflation rate would spiral out of control as the National Bank could no longer afford to prop up the value of the Nepal Rs against other world currency. Look no further than Peru’s history and Pranchandra’s mentors, The Shining Path, for Nepal’s future (the devastating effect of the Shining Path was felt even without being elected)Peru has still not recovered from the 1980’s
Theif as defined in dictionary is “a person who steals, esp. secretly or without open force” whereas a robber is someone who “takes property from (a person) illegally by using or threatening to use violence or force”. That definition catagorizes most of our political leaders as theives while the Maoist can be catagorized as robbers. Some people think that political leaders already got their chances and now Maoists should be given a chance. I say, if we have to choose between a theif and a robber its better to choose a theif for one simple reason, that is when the time comes, it may be easier to catch and penalize an un-armed theif than the armed robber. Of course, it would be great if we could choose a true leader for the nation.
People think that education is the best solution for any kind of problem. Most of the time thats true as well. However, the kind of education a person gets in his/her childhood also plays a big role in the kind of person he/she turns out to be. Just imagine, what would the future of Nepal be, if Maoists are able to spread their ideologies to our children. So, lets be careful on what we wish for and lets choose our leaders rationally.
Prachanda should never win. He is a killer and a destroyer. He only knows how to fight with others, destroy things and trouble people. He has no vision to develop Nepal. Creating a new Nepal needs a lot of construction, heavy industrialization, investment, technical support from other countries and lot of hard work. He is an idiot proudly calling Nepal banda and chakka jams, destroying vehicles, vandalizing property, burning tyres with emitting poisonous black smoke. He does not do any work and does not let others work too. He along with his stupid YCL hooligans are trouble to the country and people. He is a shameless guy who speaks anything without thinking. He should get 0 vote. Please do not vote for this bastard even if he threatens to kill you. He already has destroyed a lot and will never construct anything for Nepal.
I wonder some people are still in doubt that maoist have started so called “peoples war” for the better nepal. they started terrorism to make their position in contemproary nepal politics. yes I agree that new nepal can be made by new vision, new theory but maoist itself are the product of 200 hundred old philosophy, which may be good in that time, time of slavery, colonism , etc. Now it is quite clear that todays demand is not automy but development with fundamental human rights, equity and peace.
So what i believes is that every single vote for the maoist is the path towards autonomy. Please look at the situation of cuba, korea, before casting vote.
I highly doubt Prachanda approach which is to be on the top seat of govt as his own personal goal. He has accomplished to blind people into the conspiracy of him appearing as a spiritual leader or “hero” who took advantages of poor people to encourage them to use violence that lead to 13,000 innocent people’s death. The war lasted more than 10yrs and as the result now we see the both party reconcile to distribute the power among themselves so they stay happy. Prachanda is simply “Well-fed rebel” that organize his party through the money that he stole from the people he killed. Where’s the justice in that? How could anyone forget the inhumane approach of maoists during the civil war
lol……………..all these kangres chors must be in deep pain now that Chairman Prachanda has won the Kathmandu -10 constituency with such a huge margin. Hats off to the people of that region. He will live up to the promises he made!
Amazing! Its truly awesome article, I have got much clear idea about
from this post.