The End Game: Maoists Fail to Abide by the Peace Agreement

Maoists are unquestionably the primary political party in the alliance. Unfortunately the violence and brutality perpetuated by them has not subsided. Going by the government’s lack of policy, the indications are that in any event, the Maoist will capture state power- either through forcing fraudulent elections or by brewing public discontent against the government.

By Siddhartha Thapa
Comment of the Moment (originally posted in this blog)

“The mere absence of war is not peace”, said J. F. Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis. This statement is relevant to Nepal’s context today. Despite repeated assurances from the Maoists that they have retracted from violent politics, the reality is vastly different. Clearly, the Maoist have made a travesty out of the peace process and arms management. It has become obvious that the elections to the Constituent Assembly cannot be held in the stipulated time frame for mid June. This unfortunate circumstance is mainly due to the failure of the government to confine Maoist to peacetime politics. This failure consequently led to the rapid deterioration of law and order. The ramification of the postponement of the elections is immense – a fluid political vacuum.

The government still has not learnt from the Maoist war. It is this war, which forced the nation into a grinding halt. It is also the Maoists who have distanced the country from peacetime democratic politics. Deeper understanding is needed to comprehend the issues plaguing the country’s transition into a peaceful nation with a sustainable democracy.

Our portly political pundits need to understand that the discontented ethnic groups that have been staging agitations across the country are just now in the initial phase of their revolution. The issues of seclusion and minority rights have the necessary ingredients for the brewing of a greater revolution. Therefore, the continued dillydallying and delay in addressing ethnic issues, has the potential to push country into further quagmire– with the rise of a series of mini and counter revolutions, which could lead to the disintegration of the nation state. The ethnicity dilemma could and should have been solved at the beginning of its insurrection but unfortunately, the demands set forth by the various agitating groups have soared due to continued negligence from the government. On the other hand the Maoist insurgency has served an ideal benchmarking model for agitating groups to attain political limelight and power through the use of arms and violent politics.

The recent turmoil and continued political unrest in the Terai has exposed that in the absence of elections, the major political parties are rapidly losing their base; proving that it is only the Maoists, by using force, and indigenous groups that retain some control over rural Nepal. In more recent times the blatant violation of the peace process by the Maoists and the continued intimidation conducted by its cadres has been reciprocated with brute force by agitating groups. The Maoist influence in the Terai has been questioned for the very first time. It is interesting to note that the Maoist high command has toured the southern belt as a precautionary damage control measure.

Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s effort to induct the Maoist into government was based on the thesis that once the rebels are inducted in government, the vantage of being in opposition would no longer be a luxury enjoyed by the Maoist and they would be forced to change and act within the norms of multi party politics. Unfortunately the violence and brutality perpetuated by the Maoists has not subsided. Maoists are unquestionably the primary political party in the alliance. The revolt by the indigenous groups for equality indicates that confrontation is inevitable. The demands put forward by the indigenous group contravene Maoist school of thought– radical communism. The ramifications of these developments are critical.

When Maoists join the interim government, any attack against the Maoist will be termed as an attack against the government. Prachanda recently declared that the Maoist have been eyeing Home and Defense ministries as a precondition to join govern- ment. This means that once the Maoist join the government, the state security organs might be used to crush any voice or ethnic movement that calls for change and opposes Maoist rhetoric. If these ministries are allocated to the Maoists, it will ignite violent unrest and mar Nepal’s transition towards permanent peace and democracy.

It is foreboding that even while in government the Maoists have failed to abide by the peace agreement and renounce violence. As the election date nears, Maoist violence might reach its peak and the Prime Minister be forced to postpone the vote fearing fraudulent and violent elections. Till the time of the elections the Maoist might have incapacitated state organs, political opponents and built a case of public discontent against the government creating an environment for protests engaging in a dual role– government and opposition.

The state organs lack the required leadership to thwart Maoist designs. The Prime Minister has also failed to boost government confidence. Going by the government’s lack of policy, the indications are that in any event, the Maoist will capture state power- either through forcing fraudulent elections or by brewing public discontent against the government.

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12 thoughts on “The End Game: Maoists Fail to Abide by the Peace Agreement”

  1. I agree with Siddhartha. Maoists can’t be a credible political force if they continue behaving like a criminal gang. I am not anti-Maoists, but anti-royalists, but I feel they must change their way of functioning. They must be included in the interim government and that must be formed immediately to hold the election of CA on time. That is a MUST. The election must be held on time. It seems Maoists are worried that they are not being able to attract the middle class as they have wished. That is why they are all doing all these intimidations. But that wont help them.

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  2. “The mere absence of war is not peace”, said J. F. Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis. Solving the crisis in Nepal will be the biggest puzzle solved in 21st century bigger then the math puzzle solved by “lie group E8” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E8_(mathematics)

    The blame game must end and everyone should take responsibility for their action.

    Maoist want to escape from CA, playing blame game. They won’t be any different then ruled by shah dynasty.

    WE WANT DEMOCRACY!!!

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  3. Within 1 day the entire Nepal has turned into Royalists! Way to go Nepal! Down with SPAM warlords! Long live thy King, Long live thy People!

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  4. the maoists today forced some hotels in Kathmandu to close down today and at the same time shameless Hisila Yami was attending a workshop run by IDEA at Hotel Himalaya….. how contradicting can these terrorists be?

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  5. Some people really need to stop day dreaming and/or being so damn naive!
    The Maoists are just not capable of being a credible and legitimate political force. Envision this picture for a moment: CA elections are held and the Maoists don’t win majority. In fact they fair poorly. What then? Is the Maoist excessess going to stop. No the Maoist will then go all out and try to discredit whoever wins the elections by increasing their excessess. It’s not a pretty picture.
    I am a anti-Maoist! I am not a pro-Royalist but I am certainly more of an anti-Maoist then an anti-Royalist and I am damn proud of that fact. Unfortunetly for Nepal the SPA are so pathetic they have become incapable of standing up to the Maoists. I gave them the benefit of the doubt but now I know that was a mistake. And the Nepalese people are making a huge mistake by continuing to tolorate these pieces of sh*ts.

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  6. News roundup: The Maoists just got their asses kicked in Gaur. Apparently, Madhesi gunmen killed 25 Maoist comrades.

    Maoists are being routed in the Terai. I mean, in the capital, people are protesting against them. In the Terai, people are slaughtering them.

    Actually, most Madhesi gunmen were former Maoists themselves, so it appears they are using the Maoists’ weak points to hurt them. Plus, they have much more legitimacy in the Terai with their fellow Madhesis than the Maoists have.

    All this means is that in a short time, Maoists may well cease to exist in the Terai. Then, Pahadis will start to ask: If the Madhesis can take the law into their own hands, why can’t we?

    Something dangerous is brewing in Nepal.

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  7. Now I suspect they still resort to DOUBLE STANDARDS.

    With their cadres the Moiast leadership says something and with the public something different.

    Dr. Bhattarari recently said, “We succeeded breaking bones of rural feuds. Now on we will be taking action against URBAN one.”

    Extortion and intimidation aside, in the lime light of the physical assualts of businessmen and other commoners in recent days, it seems that the Maoists are double crossing the society.

    First of all, the Maoists should intropect and then take control over their cadres and sister organisations.

    Otherwise, how can they expect belief from the society and the international community?

    Only blaming the almost dead DUrbar and repeating “reactionary forces” conundrum are not of help to them.

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  8. STORY OF the Ant & the Grasshopper

    OLD VERSION

    The ant works hard in the scorching heat all summer building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
    The grasshopper thinks the ant’s a fool and laughs & dances & plays the summer away.
    Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter so he dies out in the cold.

    MODERN VERSION

    The ant works hard in the scorching heat all summer, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks the ant’s a fool and laughs & dances & plays the summer away.

    Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others are cold and starving and calls for a Nepal Bandh with “chakka Jaam” and lots of “tyre burning” to protest this ‘Soshan’.

    Kantipur TV, Image TV and Nepal 1 TV show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. The nation is stunned by the sharp contrast. How can this be that this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so much?

    The great Civil Society of Nepal steps in and stages a demonstration in front of the ant’s house and a concerned group goes on a fast along with other grasshoppers demanding that grasshoppers be relocated to warmer climates during winter.

    Amnesty International and Ban Ki Moon, the eighth Secretary General of the UN, criticizes the Nepal Government for not upholding the fundamental rights of the grasshopper.

    The Internet is flooded with online petitions seeking support to the grasshopper many promising Heaven and Everlasting Peace for prompt support to poor grasshoppers.

    Immediately laws are tabled to prevent Ants from working hard in the heat so as to bring about equality of poverty among ants and grasshoppers.

    Finally, the Judicial Committee drafts the “Prevention of Terrorism Against Grasshoppers Act [POTAGA]”, with effect from the beginning of the winter.

    The ant is fined for failing to comply with POTAGA and, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the Nepal Government and handed over to the grasshopper in a ceremony covered by all TV and media.

    Everyone hails it as “a triumph of justice and revolutionary resurgence of the downtrodden”. Ban Ki Moon invites the grasshopper to address the UN General Assembly.

    End of the story of great justice done to the Grasshopper.

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  9. A very good modern version of the story there.

    Here is, shall we say a POST-MODERN VERSION:

    The ant works hard the whole of summer like he always does, while the grasshopper is busy making merry and enjoying life. This particular year he got himself a Harley even. The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool for working so hard.

    Come winter, the ant is cozy and happy with whatever little he has, and makes a couple of new year resolutions like working even harder the coming summer so he might be able to provide for other small ants to go to school so that one day the ants might be able to enjoy a proper summer without having to work.

    The grasshopper mean while realizes that he is stranded in the cold with no shelter, but that is not a problem to him, since throughout summer he has been having a good time with other grasshoppers, inclusive of ones that sit all day in offices that control other ants, especially ones that carry weapons. So the grasshopper decides to order these gun carrying ants to try and arrest ants that are living in their homes in the name of “security”, “terrorism” and “TADA”.

    Civil Societies and media groups all start making noises about there being no ‘peace’. Everyone looks at the grasshopper for answers but he is quick to reply and says, “I am not doing anything, its the ants, they are the ones creating all this chaos. All I have been trying to do is work towards peace and stability by enforcing TADA and calling a state of emergency.”

    All other ants who are genuinely concerned agree that at the end of the day it is indeed the ants who are causing the problems and are therefore responsible for starting this whole fiasco. So they now start criticizing the other ants until it comes to a point where the ants start fighting among each other until death tolls, mind you of the ants only since they are the only ones who get hurt, rise into thousands.

    Grasshopper meanwhile has comfortably stripped the ants’ house of all its goodness and piled it up to build what he considers his own. As a result the grasshopper will spend his winter days in the warmth of the ant’s hard work during summer while the ants all die in the cold…

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  10. A very real possibility and we can easily assume that the one Maoist are betting on. Sometimes when you bite more than you can chew- it boomerangs back so hard, you won’t know what hit ’em.

    All I can say and pray for is sane senses prevailing before all is gone. But what I have seen till date does not make me optimist. Long live Nepal

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