Maoist in Nepal: 30,852 Guerillas, 3,428 Weapons. Really???

Now the questions are: Only that much? How could that be? Are you honest Maoist comrades?

For the record: The United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) yesterday revealed that a total of 30,852 People’s Liberation Army [of Communist Party of Maoist] militants were registered at the seven main and 21 sub cantonments across the nation while 3,428 weapons were registered in the first phase of verification process monitored by the UNMIN.

The List:

91 mortars (55 of which were locally-made);
61 machine guns;
2,403 rifles;
61 automatic weapons (sub-machine guns);
114 side-arms;
212 shotguns;
253 various/miscellaneous; and
233 home-made weapons

These weapons were registered during the first phase of arms and armies registration. But the Nepal Army claims Maoists had looted 3,430 weapons where as according to UNMIN Maoists registered a total of 3,428 weapons.

The UNMIL figure also includes “524 weapons retained for perimeter security by designated guards, in accordance with the Agreement on Monitoring of the Management of Arms and Armies (4.1.2), and 49 of the weapons are so far retained away from the cantonments, pending an understanding with the Government on arrangements for personal security of leaders,” the release stated. Meanwhile, the UNMIN also said that the number of weapons registered falls short of the number purported by the Maoists to have been commandeered from the security forces.

“The Nepal Army had made available to UNMIN a breakdown by types of 3,430 weapons which it states were taken from the Nepal Army, the Nepal Police and the Armed Police Force,” the UNMIN release said adding that the UNMIN is in the process of registering members of the Maoist army currently engaged in leadership security arrangements or undergoing medical treatment outside the cantonment sites.

The second phase of the arms registration process would begin by mid-March, UNMIN said. “Brief details of each combatant have been recorded at the first stage of registration, but have not been verified; each has been photographed and issued with an identity card with a UN bar code. Detailed information will be collected through individual interviews at the second stage of registration. The full modalities of the second stage process are under discussion in the JMCC, and it is expected to begin by mid-March,” the release stated.

Advertisements

45 thoughts on “Maoist in Nepal: 30,852 Guerillas, 3,428 Weapons. Really???”

  1. WHY THE HELL IS THIS EVEN A SUPRISE FOR PEOPLE!! Did anyone actually think the Maoists were going to surrender their guns for real?

    Like

  2. NO one believe this bull crap… of course they have hidden the weapons. Do you think they will give up their arm? That is their power as they have been saying. They have been ruling innocent people with their arms creating fear. If they surrender their arms they know they will be dying the death of Bhusiya Kukur.

    Like

  3. The arms have been hidden for the CA elections, where they will use it capture booths. These people beleive in the gun power and will be killed by the people of nepal.

    Like

  4. don’t think tats a surprise…everyone’s got a guess abt t arms they have…they gonna use it during t so called “elections”….surely its hidden under the ass of the government..n i can bet they won’t b able to find it…

    Like

  5. The maoists will need the guns, it seems, they should guard their weapons properly, if the whole party do not need it, a sizeable section would need it, it seems so. The voice, the lives of the oppressed, their demands still do not matter, the bullshits, pahade brahmins, leeches are still there deciding things.

    Like

  6. As usual the UN has shown its utter incompetence again, I am not surprized.

    Those who expected from them a decent job are living in the la-la land – you only have to look at their past track record in Rawanda and many other places. I wish John Bolton had his way with the UN!

    Like

  7. very surprising figures… is UN going to provide the security during the CA election??? I read news today of ‘Maoist clashes with MPRF’, ‘Maoist clashes with NFIN activist’, ‘maoist manhandling NC/UML cadres’ etc…
    Where is the peace process heading??? So many new groups, each demanding representation (each calling for nepal banda when their pockets are empty)… looks like Nepal will be burning very soon… Looks like we are heading back to 22/24(baaishe chubishe rajya).

    Like

  8. ???????? ????:
    Couldn’t agree more. Ian Martin should be deported immediately. The UN has been an utter failure and have become irrelevant in the world. So when our leaders invited them they jumped at the opportunity and now the Maoists are making a fool of them.
    Prachanda is demanding Nepal be made into a republic even before the CA elections and even before this arms issue (even though its a sham) is sorted out. Prachanda is getting really cocky.

    Like

  9. Lets not blame everything on the UN. It is Maoists’ responsiblity to be honest in weapon registration if they truely want to function as a political party. UN is only a moderator. I still think that UN is and was the best third party to facilitate arms management.

    Like

  10. Sure it’s not all the UN’s fault but they are being taken for a ride and this idiot Ian Martin and the UN is deperate to show success somewhere in the world they are implcitly looking the other way even though they must be smelling a rat!

    Like

  11. That means we are in a dangerous situation. So, who can we trust for the weapon’s management ? It seems like the political parties are also not serious about it. They just want to get it done, avoid controversy, hold CA elections and remain in power. They are in a trapped kind of situation. They fear that if the Maoists decide to go back to the jungle then everyone will blame the parties and they will lose their credibility for ever. That could be the reason they are overlooking the recent Maoist activities like fighters leaving the camps and weapon count.

    Like

  12. Mr. Mayavi:
    There is no weapons management because the Maoists have no intention of giving up their weapons. Imagine if they gave up their weapons the villagers would beat them and throw them out of the villages. They would have no command or respect without the guns. You are right about the political parties.
    It’s a tough situation for Nepal.

    Like

  13. Alright time to get real folks.

    Prachanda, Goit and Upendra – you guys have caught Nepal where it hurts most so fine. I think you guys should make a deal and rule Nepal. Forget the king. Nomatter how many miss him we need to move on. So make a deal and lets get this done. Whtever you do don’t endanger our country’s nationality. And SPA, be ready to be the opposition guys this time. Learn and lets see you bounce back again. We need all of you together for the sake of the people. For the sake of Nepal. So make a deal rightaway.

    Goit/Yadav – I believe it will be more pragmatic for you to join hands with SPAM and let royalists go. I am not an anti royalist but I think its simply because monarchy has lost this time. Remember – the more you play with fire, the it will burn you.

    Like

  14. We should have some serious discussion on the fate of CA elections.

    How can it be made fair despite Maoist attempts to gain an upperhand by unfair means?

    What are the possible reactions to the results of the election?

    If Nepal is declared a republic how might the royal family/king/army/ royalists react?

    Is Nepal prepared for the transition? What could be the possible challenges for this transition?

    The govt should have some idea of the big picture.

    Like

  15. The biggest joke of 2007. Only 3428 weapons for a PLA of 30,000. Give me a break…that is about 1 weapon per 10 Maoist soldiers.

    The weapons management is a farce. Maoists are not serious about the Peace process. SPA is the 7 blind men & the elephant.

    Now that terai is on blaze, they will justify the need to keep some weapons…

    Like

  16. What suprises me the most here is to see people suprised. I don’t understnad Why did anyone of you actually thought the Maoists were serious about surrendering their weapons? Why and how would these Maoists cadres thugs who have been used to extortion, bullying, stealing all of a sudden give up their weapons and act like an responsible citizen?
    The UN is a worthless organization. They have failed everywhere and now Nepal is going to be another country on that list.

    Like

  17. All right, I’m gong to take a lot of flack for this. I’m sorry guys, thats the full weapon count.

    I know you assumed all this time that they were being supplied by India or Pakistan or china or some other force. But the weapons they got from outside were smuggled in from their Maoist contacts in India and were a negligible amount of their force.

    I spent a day or 2 with a brigade of the PLA and I did not see one weapon that was not part of the police/Army arsenal. I saw a whole bunch of Lee Enfeild .303 a few INSAS and FNFAL a Bren Machine gun and a 50mm Mortar. At one point they showed me a picture of someone holding an m16 (also captured from the army) that they were very, very, proud of.

    Thus, if you look at the official army figures on how many weapons they lost, and how many weapons the Maoists say they have, they should be comparable figures.

    If the Maoists are holding on to weapons, it would have to be what they bought, which isn’t much, and that amount would be VASTLY outnumbered by what the army is holding on to. Maoist strategy is based on Mao after all.
    —————–
    Weapons are an important factor in war, but not the decisive factor; it is people, not things, that are decisive. -MAO TSE-TUNG “On Protracted War” (1938)

    Like

  18. Briefly,

    Firstly Mr. Horning, you must be mad if the maoists are going to show you their hidden weapons. Why would they display it all to journalists when their intention is to hide them? Personally, how this Horning character claims all these things with absolute certainty is beyond me. I mean we the Nepalis don’t seem to know and the government is unsure and we have this foreing journalist claiming to be the authority on facts and figures!!!!!

    But, personally with the way the SPA have handled the maoists and are still giving them a lot of space, I don’t see how it matters whether they have hidden weapons or not? This is all formalities. I mean they just got around Rs. 400 million which is unaccounted for, they can still buy 5000+ Ak-47s or more if they need it with the money. Maybe they already have.
    The important thing is elections should be held as scheduled, we will know thier intentions clearly during the elections. Purchasing or hiding arms when we have open borders is a forgone conclusion. People trying to claim that the maoists have declared all their arms are simply dumb or maoists themselves.
    But this is my personal view, now it is up to the people who signed the many agreements to decide on what to do – clearly the maoists have violated the agreements in more than one manner. But what does it matter? Like I said it is all a game and these are formalities. Personally the maoists are up to no good. I have said it before and I will say it again. Hell, many of their cadres are and have given speeches telling the people that CA elections are not even necessary. So I wonder who are the ones fearing elections and trying their damnest to atleast delay it?

    Like

  19. “Weapons are an important factor in war, but not the decisive factor; it is people, not things, that are decisive. -MAO TSE-TUNG “On Protracted War” (1938)”

    True, let’s put it in theory, you have 3500 or so wepaons, which are not the deciding factors, the people are, so the mao’s gather together thousands of villagers place them in the front line with sickles and sticks while their PLA stay way behind with the guns. Then they attack, with petrified human shields in front who know that if they turn to run they die anyway. They attack, if the run is successful before the army can get to the PLA at the back, great, if not, then the PLA turn and run with hundreds slaugtered villagers forced to partake the casualties. Then the maos declare them martyrs and claim them as their own. The “lucky” survivors of the human shield live in hope that the PLA never come to their region again to pronounce them martyrs in another of these “brave” and “tactical” attacks on the state. I’m sure us Nepalis get the picture.

    Like

  20. Word to the wise to Horning the banner of the maoists – go to the mantri quarters in Pulchowk where the maoist victims group are and “spend a day or two” with them for a change – with the people who have spent a decade or so with your PLAs.

    Like

  21. Again personally it is all formalities. But AK47’s never have belonged to any of the state forces. Maoists have them. Maybe they bought a couple only. Then again maybe they bought a couple of hundred.

    Like

  22. The role of the UN is to find the fact and inform, and act neutral. It doesnot mean UN do everything and even enter into the internal matter when government is saying they can handle the situation. This is the responsbility of the SPA government. The mediation of peace process is not done by any international agencies so who are involved in the peace agreement are responsible for their committments. SPAM as a whole should take the responsiblity of this country, CA election and arms management. Blaming game is not going to work in every step.

    Like

  23. The last choice for the SPA is to surrender toward UN by saying that they are incapable to handle the country and politics. Then only UN will get involved but still neutrally with consideration of human right violation and sovereignity of the country..And we are almost in that stage…the more the SPA linger the power more this country head toward hell…now people should come out to the street and demand UN to enterfer the politics before it goes more worst like Combodia, Ruwanda, Afghanistan…

    Like

  24. Here is what a military expert (not Horning feels):

    Military expert raises eyebrows at Maoist weapon stats
    Kantipur Report
    KATHMANDU, Feb 24 – Military expert Dr Indrajit Rai on Saturday said that it was not as easy to believe the stats of the Maoist weapons that have been registered at the UN.
    The United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN) yesterday had made public that the UN had registered 30,852 PLA combatants and 3,428 weapons from the cantonments across the country.
    Rai said that the number of weapons registered at the UN is far less than the number of Maoist combatants registered and the situation arose because “one man, one weapon” principle was not adopted while registering the PLA fighters.
    Stating that the negotiators too failed at some critical points, expert Rai said that he had a slight inkling of this situation when it was decided that registration of those fighters also would be done who did not have weapons.
    “There could have been 10-12,000 weapons and I had thought half of those would be registered. Even that figure did not come,” said Rai.

    Like

  25. And here is evidence there is more where tat came from:

    NA detains eight armed Maoists at Bardiya reserve
    By Kamal Panthi
    BARDIA, Feb 24 – Bardiya National Park Saturday has remained tense in the wake of armed Maoist cadres entering into the park premises on Friday.
    Nepal Army (NA) personnel stationed at the park Friday night had apprehended eight Maoists at a vehicle check-point while in possession of 2 SLRs (Self Loading rifles) and one INSAS rifle.
    According to NA colonel Sameer Singh, the Maoists who were aboard an unregistered microbus were apprehended by officers of the Ranasher Battallion at Rammapur security post on the east-west Mahendra Highway.
    Although the Maoists had defended their illegal possession weapons as “orders from above”, the army personnel tried to detain the eight after they failed to produce the necessary papers.
    The Maoists had then forcibly continued onwards only to get arrested once again at Chisapani security outpost some 30 km west of Rammapur.
    According to the Army, the Maoists had resisted the security check but yielded later due to the NA personnel’s insistence on fulfilling their duty.
    The news of the army’s refusal to allow the armed Maoists to pass quickly resulted in a large group of Maoists from Kailali gathering at the site where the Maoists were being detained and chanting slogans against the Army.

    Like

  26. And here is Prachanda’s lame ass explanation: (It’s a surprise he did’nt say bricks and stones were also not registered as weapons)! Also he flayed the government for daring to ask about where the 40 crores went! How dare they ask where the 40 crores of tax payers money went! In his murderous pot belly pocket presumably.

    Prachanda defends Maoist fighters-weapons disparity
    Kantipur Report
    KATHMANDU, Feb 25 – Maoist Chairman Prachanda Sunday said that the number of Maoist weapons registered at the UN is less than that of PLA combatants because the UN did not recognize and register grenades and socket bombs as weapons.
    The United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN) on Friday had made public that the UN had registered 30,852 PLA combatants and 3,428 weapons from the cantonments across the country.
    Arguing that examples of fighters outnumbering their weapons were prevalent in other nations as well, Prachanda claimed that no weapons had been concealed from his side.
    Addressing a press meet at Butwal organized by the Federation of Nepalese Journalists Rupandehi chapter, the Maoist Chairman flayed the government’s accusations that the Maoists failed to publicize the details of its expenditure.

    Like

  27. I’m sorry comrade butcher but you’re real weapons are the thousands of innocent people you killed up front in the firing line. Whose counting them?

    Like

  28. Just realised I think comrade butcher made a slip up, as I think grenades and socket bombs have also been registered in the count.

    Like

  29. Only way to move fwd and save Nepal is for SPAM and Mahesis to make a deal and share power while letting the monarchy go. monarchy represents one extreme while maoists and madhesis represent another. SPA is dudh bhate, they are in the middle so quite irrelevant. Hence maoist n madhesis interest meet more than with monarchy.

    But with madhesis new found power, will they be willing to play second fiddle to maoists? i dont think so. thats another angle that need sorting out but later.

    Like

  30. the arms are hidden so that the maoists can save their own skin.
    Without arms, the people of nepal will hang them.
    The Forum is all out to finish the maoists, if not peacefull then by the use of guns.
    So we are in for another round of bloody violence in which one maoists will kill another maoists.
    Upendra Yadav -ex. maoists
    Goiet-ex. maoist, Jwala Singh-ex. maoists.
    Let these maoists kill each other, once they are done, the Proud people of Nepal will take care of the surviving maoists.

    Like

  31. The “military expert” is of dubious credibility if he says the government should have used a 1 weapon 1 combatant principle.

    The Maoists military strategy has never been based on Weapons. Their primary military strategy was to clear out state machinery of a certain area by attacking the police with overwhelming force. Once the police were removed they were kept out through fear and simple or improvised weaponry used by the militia. With the Police cleared the Maoists would fill the vacuum with their own political activists and state machinery. Subsequently they would gain recruits. If the army came, they would run, and when the army left, they would come back.
    Now there are many weapons that the Maoists did not register. Here’s one that probably isn’t registered right here.

    Photo

    It’s a muzzle loaded flintlock rifle. That and socket bombs are what they used to hold territory. For all their offensive work they used the arms that have been registered. They just passed them around between brigades, or combined the weapons from different brigades and divisions together in order to take on larger targets.

    Even if the Maoists were under reporting their arms significantly, to only register 1combatant per firearm would be to let most of the combatants out of the camps. If the “expert” doesn’t understand this, than he doesn’t understand the first thing about Maoist military strategy or guerrilla warfare in general. He can hardly be a relevant expert for this reason.

    Like

  32. I would also like to say a few words about Dang, as a PM has claimed the Weapons registered don’t even amount to those lost in Dang.

    This is the Maoist internal after action report from dang. They published it about a year ago (a time they had no reason to deflate their figures) in worker #10. Click here.

    ———–
    Achievements

    This action proved to be a historical milestone. Political and military achievement was acquired qualitatively. The concrete technical achievement was achieved as follows:

    a) 5 pieces of 81 mm mortar and cells 250,

    b) 3 pieces of 2″ mortar and cells 200,

    c) 3 pieces of RL and cells 40,

    d) 2 pieces of MMO and GPMG, 14 pieces of LMG, 48 pieces of SMG, 100 pieces of SLR, altogether 225 pieces of .303 rifle, magnum, shotgun, revolver and pistol and war materials including more than 50 thousands of ammunition, around 50 quintals of gelignite, fuse wire, detonator, M-36 grenade were achieved. More than 50 million in cash and other valuables worth Rs 2.5 million were captured.

    Enemy Loss

    14 royal army personnel including a major and 2 I/C died in the action. Altogether 7 policemen died where as about 3 dozens were wounded. Almost all of the camps were destroyed. Enemy lost property worth more than 200 million Rupees.

    ———–
    In other words, not even a significant fraction of the Weapons they registered were captured in Dang, and the minister is either extremely misinformed or telling a bold faced lie.

    As Indian intelligence has been proven to be lying as well, and Moriarty hasn’t produced any evidence, it’s time to forget about the weapons, and start pressuring for the camp expenditure report.

    Like

  33. Great Philosophy

    Weapons are an important factor in war, but not the decisive factor; it is people, not things, that are decisive. -MAO TSE-TUNG “On Protracted War” (1938)

    Result
    TIANANMEN Square Massacre on 4th June 89.

    Nice going guys. keep it up

    Like

  34. Not that it matters, but the Maoists and the Chinese government have been ideologically divergent and hated each other since 1976. You won’t find any that support the Tienanmen square Massacre.

    Great leap forward: yes.
    Cultural revolution: yes.
    Tienanmen Square: No.

    Like

  35. The military expert atleast expected more, much more. Dubious to expect 30000, but who says the maoists had 30000. They have admitted that they recruited 20000+ after April and the expert atleast expected 6000 wepons to be registered . It is more dubious to think that the maoists have not hidden their weapons. Anyway, it really does not matter – formalities.

    Like

  36. Horning makes me really laugh my socks off – with his here is the maoist report on this and that. If people believed the maoists there would not be any problems would they?

    Like

  37. Look, weapons management depends on intentions of both sides. Because the insurgents can always claim that most of their weapons were lost, stolen or like prachanda said swept away by rivers. Look, the fault was in the hasty agreement between the SPA and M. The actual process of management should have only started after the Maoists had shown their intent and sincerety to the peace process through their actions. When insurgents are protected by our home minister what can you do. If burglars get into our house to steal our assests and one of our own family members sides with the burglar what hope do we have? These maoists are no burglars by any standard but instead terrorists. Only if the SPA were a little more careful about Nepal’s future rather than only greeding for power, maybe it was possible to keep the maoists in check. Tough luck and evil leaders.

    Like

  38. KATHMANDU, Feb 27 – Nepal chief of the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) Ian Martin Tuesday warned that the Constituent Assembly elections could not take place if an immediate political consensus was not be reached,.
    Addressing a press conference at UN Headquarters in New York yesterday, Martin — who had left for the New York last week to brief the world body on the progress made by the UNMIN till date – warned that amid violence in the Terai region, Maoist combatants leaving their cantonment sites and a continuing lack of agreement among the country’s political parties, June’s scheduled elections may have to be postponed unless some form of consensus is reached “very soon”.

    Martin also acknowledged the “striking difference” between the relatively small number of Maoist arms given up for registration and the large number of combatants in the seven main cantonment sites.

    Like

  39. Talk abt UN failure…eh…they play the most sickening politics inside their own work places…and play the same outside and no one notices it…they’ll build you a small raft to cross the strongest currents of any river they choose then the’ll cut off the rope precisely at the most strongest current….you’ll be shouting ur lungs out for help and they’ll command you to give back all that went into making the raft…that’s how UN works… rest u can figure yourself out…
    As for Maoist i salute them for being so brave enough to think that they’ll pull off this crap abt their weapon count. How stupid do they think we are…but wat more can we do…show our disbelief thru diff. media and in a month or few everyone will be made to believe it and after that we’ll all forget abt it and they will succeed in what they started..
    .

    Like

  40. Who believes this crap; The difference of between arms and militia is way too huge to believe in. Maoists have fooled themselves rather than the people…they have proved their dishinesty right from the start.

    Like

Post your views

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s