Coup in Thailand: Generals, Go Back To Democracy!

The Military Coup is Deplorable and Thais must fight back. We in Nepal condemn the army takeover.

The military coup in Thailand yesterday reminded many of us in Nepal King Gyanendra’s Feb 1, 2005 takeover. First, as the global democratic citizens, we strongly condemn the coup and urge the Thai people to fight back the military takeover. Thai Army, with its own history of coups, did what Gyanendra did in Nepal in 2005. Now it’s time for the Thais oo do what we the Nepalis did in April this year. Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, the coup leader and chief of the army, has said the reason for seizing power was the “government’s misconduct, which has caused conflicts and broken the unity of the people in the country in a way that has never happened before in the history of Thailand.” The army seizing administrative power from the democratically elected (caretaker) government by ordering the dissolution of the House of Representatives, the Senate, the government and the Constitutional Court on any pretext is deplorable.

Like all autocrats and dictators around the world, the Thai General’s aide in the coup, Gen. Prapas Sakultanak, according to New York Times, said that the military did not intend to rule the country and that it would “hand power back to the people.” In Nepal too, Gyanendra had said the same but he took the lives of 22 innocent Nepali people before handing over power back to them. The tactics applied by dictators are same around the world: They ban press from reporting truth, blackout information, jail democratic leaders and claim that all they are doing to strengthen democracy. General Sondhi, according to the Times, vowed that military rule would be temporary. The military, he said, “insists that it has no intention to become the country’s ruler and will return to democracy under the monarchy to the Thai people as soon as possible.”

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is a popular figure in Thailand and the army, with its own ambitions, was unhappy with how the populist Prime Minister was dealing with some issues. Coup is not the solution. If Thaksin needs to be punished, people will punish him in democratic elections; Generals should just salute him and follow his orders.

Some people in this afternoon’s tea session in canteen were relating the coup in Thailand with Nepali situation. All agreed that in Nepal the situation is different now. General Rukmangat Katwal, the newly appointed Chief of the Army Staff, has publicly vowed to work under the orders of the government of Nepal. He should be given the benefit of doubt. Meanwhile, the reform process must continue within the army. It must be intensified. And law that parliamentarians are currently discussing on about the army will be crucial to help democratize the army. The autocrat has been partly tamed and the institution of monarchy must be eliminated in the CA elections, better if that is done earlier than that. King is Thailand is incomparably popular among his people than the king in Nepal. But if he really adores his people, Thai king must distance himself with the coup and direct the military to return the power to people.

Blogs from Thailand:

1. Bangkok Pundit (updates on coup)
3. Oh! See What The Cat Drags In!

Published by UWB

Pioneering blog from Nepal...since 2004.

99 thoughts on “Coup in Thailand: Generals, Go Back To Democracy!

  1. COUPS SINCE 2000;

    Month/Year Country Circumstances
    Jan. 2000 Ecuador
    President Jamil Mahuad overthrown in the first military coup in Latin America in a decade.
    May 2000 Fiji
    Fijian nationalists, led by George Speight, deposed President Mahendra Chaudhry.
    April 2002 Venezuela
    President Hugo Chavez overthrown by military; reinstated two days later after international criticism.
    March 2003 Central African Re Prime Minister Ange-Félix Patassé deposed by rebel leader Francois Bozize.
    July 2003 São Tomé and Príncipe
    Military coup deposes President Fradique de Menezes; he is reinstated a week later following international pressure. Sept. 2003, Guinea-Bissau: President Kumba Yalá overthr
    Sept. 2003 Guinea-Bissau
    President Kumba Yalá overthrown in military coup.
    Feb. 2004 Haiti
    President Jean-Bertrand Aristide overthrown by rebel groups.
    Feb. 2004 Togo
    After death of President Etienne Eyadema, the military installed his son, Faure Gnassingbe.
    Aug., 2005 Mauritania
    Military coup deposes president Maaouye Ould Sidi Ahmed Taya.
    Sept. 2006 Thailand
    by Army chief, Sondhi

  2. Mijar sir/madam,

    Yes the world is a global village & world events do matter, but, for a country like Nepal to lecture Thailand or even to comment on the merits of democracy is reduntant. We are a sinking ship, yet, we are so apt at pointing faults at others. I guess we Nepalis have perfected the art of “arka ko khutta tanne”.

    If you have ever been to Thailand (which I hope you have or will in the future), you will find a cosmopolitan nation that is far advanced both in terms of economy, culture & development than our’s.

    If you want to compare the Thai & RNAC airlines started about the same time in the early 60’s, but, look where Thai has progressed to look at our RNAC.

    Tourism sector in Thailand also started around the same time as Nepal. They have world class to budget minded back packer facilities. Tourism plays a huge role in their economy.

    If anything Nepal needs to emulate Thailand in terms of rural development, economy & tourism. Comparing Thailand & Nepal is like apples & oranges to put it mildly.

  3. Anyone who thinks that the recent Thai coup was a good thing should look at Thai politics pre 1991. I think it was a coup every four years. And Bridohi I thought you were intelligent enough to realise that most people are not lecturing the Thais but talking amongst ourselves of the relevance to Nepal of a military coup and democracy in general.

  4. To be global first put your house in order. The way things are here- all are pundits but their Deep insights and theory on good governance does not hold any water. Look around it shows.

    All commentators are just on the pursuit to show their intelligence and as if all is cut and dry- get real and pragmatic before its all too late

  5. Dear Sansar ji,

    please enlighten us (already intelligent ppl), how to get real and pragmatic!

    thank you

  6. Yahooji,

    We all know the situation pretty well, the root cause is evident to everyone but many of us prefer to make periphery comments rather than comment black as black and white as white. Gotta be direct, to the point and not hide behind the veil of theorist or intellectuals of supra kind.

  7. yahoo-sansar is the most intelligent of the ‘intelligents’. By the way aren’t most of the bloggers talking about the Thai coup in terms of a possible Nepali coup and how bad it is for a developing democracy in countries like ours? I don’t the bloggers are lecturing the Thais-only the very intelligent ones seem to think so.

  8. birodhi or bidrohi or whatever,I will just call u killer maoist,
    Listen bro,dont lecture us about thailand or any other democratic nation.We know lot better than you do.If u have developed any new techniques about how to kill people,how to abduct children and how to beat pregnant women till they die,then you can share with us,thats ur field of expertise,it doesnt suit you to talk about democratic nation.
    Your leader says he will make nepal into switzerland in 10 years (i can remember similar statement by KP bhattarai also) and u are afraid of thailand,sounds funny enough to me.
    First change ur mentality brother.We are not “pulling leg” of thailand,we are just saying that what happened is not right.You cannot force anyone to accept authority,u have to win hearts and minds and then the ballots to get it.
    Well who am i telling all this to.Timiharu jangali harulai democracy ko kura padhayera ke garnu,kukkur le gooo khana chod daina!!

  9. Sansar ji,

    There are nuance and finer shades between black and white, more so when in comes to social dynamics/belief/opinion/perception.

    If everyone were to think in ‘good/bad’, ‘black/white’, then it’s a binary thought process like zeros/ones, with that you can’t get any more pragmatic/real than your computer on your desk.

    so, may be in my humble opinion ppl are already practising ‘real/pragmatism’ while they engage in ‘gol gol’ diatribe/polemic.

    Kirat ji,

    I believe you reside in Nepal, don’t you ever sleep, must have been pretty late at that end of the globe?

  10. Yahooji,

    I take your point, thats understood. Situation in Nepal now demands that we be more direct- cut and dry -rather than keep on with diatribe. Thats all.

    For time being shades of grey and in between the lines are for civil society.

  11. kirat is a confused 24 hour maoist hotline,probably there is more than one communal maoist element involved and they do it in shifts.

    Well these days he tries to sound more democratic,but u know,communalism and his love for the maoists are all too evident!!

  12. hi yahoo, it’s almost twelve here. I’m a bit of an insomniac.

    What’s with this mero nepal bloke? My blog name must set him off. Very Pavlovian! Talk about intelligence! (he probably thinks Pavlov is Stalin’s right hand man!)

  13. Sansar ji,

    so what do you suggests for a civil society, doused in grey, while ppl with mono-chromatic vision run the country?

    cut n dry– not much of leeway there to flex your limbs of liberty i guess.

    just a thought–daubed with grey!!

  14. Yahooji,

    All I want to say extraordinary time calls for extra ordinary actions. The civil society (Nepal) are in grey fronting, to take your word, mono-chromatic visionary party. Thats the crux and the danger.

    You talk about liberty and leeway, time may not be far off where it will be imprisoned in the name of people’s struggle or war.

  15. Sansar ji,

    I do see the imminent danger of my liberties/freedom being jettisoned with the rise of Baboon Ram and his jungle dwelling apes.

    Free thoughts are not strategic tools to fight A with B, they are the human traits, and should not give away at anytime, cirsis or no cirsis, since it’s the only compass that demarcates the line of human to inhuman. If you are a civil society, and you are taking a middle ground, well that might be your only tool to keep the society in balance.

    i guess it’s geting bit philosophical and fuzzy!!

  16. Maoists are not going to stage a coup but they doing a coup of their own. That means first they want to come in the Interim Govt. and they ask m

  17. Maoists are not going to stage a coup but they doing a coup of their own. That means first they want to come in the Interim Govt. and they ask many things. Slowly they want to capture. if they do it hastily, they will brutally fail.So their strategy is to go slow but ask the maximum. They will reach at such a point that they kick the ass of Girija, Makune and others. They will completely capture the country. Only hindrance for them is foreign powers who will not give any aid to Nepal.

  18. 1. Maoists took part in the parliament election. They lost.
    2. Maoists started the revolution to take over the government. They lost.
    3. Maoists are now starting the peace process with SPAs. They are winning.
    4. And yes. They want to enter the government. If they succeed they will take over the government.
    5. In the end Maoists are going to get what they wanted all along without election and without fight.

  19. Parewa jyu,

    I am far far away from being a Maoist killer as you aptly label me. If you have read any of the comments that I have written on this & previous blogs, you will realize that I am a fellow countryman who firmly believes in freedom, democracy & the middle path.

    In a democracy, there is a concept called tolerance. You have to accept people for who they are even if you do not agree with their views. I hope you will agree.

    However, I come from a pragmatic political philosophy school where I believe that only we, the people will be able to fix the our problems, not our erstwhile leaders. It starts from the individual. We have to voice our opinions & stop becoming the silent majority.

    By the way, “Bridohi” is just a name. Just like you have chosen Parewa, a dove which could signify a pacifist or a coward whimp depending upon the situation which you may or may not be. What’s in a name anyway? I have seen many Ram, Hari & Krishnas all behaving un-god like…

    Does irony means anything to you?

  20. On the Thai Coup

    On hearing news of the military coup in Thailand, Girja Prasad Koirala asserted that a military coup in Nepal is “out of the question.”
    This was the correct thing to say, for as long as Girija understands that he and his fellow politicians are not in office to surrender to Pushpey and his henchmen, the only coup to worry about is from within the SPA alliance – and this coup, if the NC doesn’t quickly combine, is not far down the road.
    Such a merger will take place in one of two scenarios: If GPK passes away or if Deuba comes to his senses.
    On the other hand, if Girja is dreaming of bringing the Maoists into an interim government (many signs indicating this presently), then he is inviting a coup. As a man infamous for saying one thing and doing the opposite, his logic may be to let the leftists and rightists fight it out amongst themselves so he and his family can stay in the game.
    Members of the SPA alliance were also quick to express solidarity with former Thai PM Thaksin’s camp. If one studies the reasons behind why Thaksin was so unpopular in his own country, the rationale for our politicians’ expression of solidarity becomes clearer – anyone hear “corruption” in the air?
    It was a nice gesture on our politicians’ part to feel the Thai democratic forces’ pain. Not that Nepali politicians crying foul play about a situation in Thailand, has any relevance to any analyst covering Thailand, but the political drama by our very own, was amusing!
    Our politicians should probably do a little more research before jumping to conclusions; Thailand’s democracy is strong and it’s monarchy is revered. The coup in Thailand was backed by Thaksin’s opposition, much like our own “coup” was backed by our Maoists –time for all the conspiracy theorists to do some soul searching.

    On predictions of another coup

    On September 13, 2006 during an interview with the Voice of America, the International Crisis Group’s Rhoderick Chalmers made the following statement: “I believe there is already underway a rearguard action, by the palace, by the people who depend on the palace, the powerful feudal elites in the country, who retain all sorts of leverage behind the scenes. And I think it would be very naïve if we imagine that the king’s unconditional surrender, as was announced on television, means the end of the game for them.”
    In response to such a strong statement by Mr. Chalmers, no reaction from the leftists in the SPA alliance was available. Naturally, they did not ask for him to be taken out of his role, conducting “impartial” coverage on Nepal – and no norms of “crisis prevention” were subverted, because there are none. (Being political, being politically (in)correct, and being part of an INGO certainly comes with advantages!)
    This could imply a few things: One, no one really cares about Mr. Chalmers’ gloomy prediction; Two, Mr. Chalmers’ prediction has some merit and will serve as the backbone for the next Leftist conspiracy theory; Three, his friends in Nepal’s civil society will leverage the ICG’s reputation to validate their claim that a breakdown in law and order in Nepal is being committed by “feudal” and “reactionary” forces, backed by “certain foreign powers.” This song and dance has played a few too many times.

  21. Coup rehearsel:

    On the Maoist rehearsal

    On September 13, 2006, suddenly tires were seen burning on the roads and streets of Kathmandu; schools, colleges, banks, casinos and business houses were forced to shut down and employees were forced to come out on the streets to participate in a protest rally.
    Traffic flows were disrupted and “chakkajams” were enforced in several places. Similar protest rallies were also held in different cities all over Nepal by the Maoists under the pretext that the Army was importing weapons into the country.
    In reality, the Army was transferring trucks and small APCs from Birgunj to its barracks in Gajuri. This equipment was being transferred for Nepalese soldiers to deploy to Lebanon, at the request of UN Security Council.
    Maoists called off the protest rally only after an Inspection Committee went inside the Gajuri barracks and announced that the Maoists’ claim was false.
    But for the Maoists, finding weapons wasn’t really the point. Yet again, they demonstrated to Girja and the SPA government how quickly they can bring the capital to a complete stand still. This was a clear indication to Girja that he’s in thick soup.
    The irony of course, is that the Maoists are the ones who are transporting weapons from different parts of the country into Kathmandu. How about some Congress and UML supporters try and launch a rally to protest Maoist arms being brought into major cities? Is that the sound of chickens in the distance?

  22. After the maoists coup, their time will obviously be short lived but it would also be too late, see the following aftermath (very high likelihood), one among many others based on religion and ethnicity. Result would be we would have lost a nation:

    On Hindu solidarity – not necessarily of the democratic kind

    MP Swami Adityanath of the Bharatiya Janata Party, in a press conference has said that the BJP is in favour of multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy in Nepal.
    He said that Nepal, the only Hindu nation in the world, has kept the pride and identity of Hindus alive and well, around the world.
    The MP expressed his party’s readiness to pay any price (even use arms) to protect and preserve Hindu dignity. He claimed that the king of Nepal is king of not only of 80 percent of the Hindus in Nepal, but also of 1.5 billion Hindus in 47 countries.
    On September 15, 2006, approximately 150 different associations led by World Hindu Federation organized a protest rally in Kathmandu.
    The sign on the wall reads as follows: “ethnic violence around the corner and separation of “church” and state, turning into a nightmare.”

  23. bidhrohi or birodhi or whatever,
    listen dude tell the story of tolerance to your bosses.How can you support maoism and preach about tolerance.What irony,what cowardice,how pathetic!!

  24. Parewa jyu,

    Dude, either you skim through the blog without paying much attention or you do not comprehend… Do you understand irony or are you that bitter?

    Your comments are no different than a Maobadi brain washed ideologue who labels any one who criticizes Maoists as reactionary, revisionist, regressive, royalist &/or a capitalist pig.

    For you, anyone who points out the defects in our liberal democracy is a rebel, Maoist revolutionary, violent & blood thirsty.

    We all need to look in the mirror home boy.

  25. Have you seen today’s Nepali Times? It reports a public opinion poll. According to this poll, 49 percent want republic and still 48 percent of Nepali people want King. Remember, the margin is just 1 percent and see it in the context that the present king has just lost. Wait, when time passes, people will be even nostalgic. In the time of Constituent Assembly, more than 66 percent people will vote for the king. Yes, Nepali people don’t want autocratic King, but want democratic monarchy. Have knowledge about the difference between a king as an individual and the monarchy as an institution. Nepali people are in favor of monarchy.

  26. What coup we are talking? we are already in coup. Even Girija worried to speak about his ideology infront of maoist, lets forget about others. He has been threatened that he will be thrown from the Prime minster quater.Why not maoist sacrifice something and go to the government by laying down their arms and concerntrate for CA election? If they had won king by peaceful demonstration then why they worry about tomorrow, the same thing they can implement? Then why do they want arms and arm forces for CA election? Lets dissovle their forces by merging in democratic army and other means. What else do they want more than that? Why these SPA is silent whatever they are doing? Looking at the picture of Kantipur of yesterday they are preparing for themselves something else. If anything goes wrong with the democracy these civil socities should also take the responsibilities. Madhav kumar is right about his question “why civil society should be involved in interim government although they are not political party”. Being democractic forces, SPA should understand that there are many groups planning to raise the arms tomorrow. They cannot fulfill the demand of all so they should be strong in barganing for the peace and democracy with maoist. Otherwise the trend of raising arms in Nepal become popular like in Afghanistan.

  27. Nepali Times opinion poll is the worst poll in terms of proper representation of general Nepali public opinion. I like Nepali Times but the readership is very small and represents almost exclusively one tiny section of Nepali society (in my opinion ther worst one-including yours truly).

  28. Kart,

    I did not know you are still a kid, trying to throw childish arguments. Sondhi is someone else in Thailand….He is a leader of People’s alliance for Democary (PAD), a civil society leade much like Sunder Mani Dixit. ‘Kart’ and ‘Kirat’ could be two differnt person but are we talking about this? Is it the point that you want to make me heard? I heard bete, I did. You are Kart right 😉 Forget about North Korea, Cuba…. keep your own house in order you Budhdhu!

    Wow what a stimulating Idea emanting from a kiddo! You may want to go home and cry infront of your mama…yeye that guy says Thai coup is good but Nepal coup is bad yeyeye. “OK beta, I will ask him to tell all coups are the same” says your mama. you would stop crying and feel happy about your stimulating Idea! You can even draw analogy between SPA and TRT and conclude that all coup leaders say the same thing ! Do not you think you can even compare Mahilo Sahu with Shincorp-Shau. Thaksin probably owns property worth 10 Billion dollar and 90% of it immorarly earned. What can law do if you buy a piece of land cheaply and endorse a network of road through the land approved by the ministry and parliament. You go to India in a state visit and sell your satellite band to Indians. You sell the share worth 2 billion dollars to a foregin company and you donot even pay a single penny to the state. Your telecom controlled by foreigner and you repent that you had a leader like this. What comes first state ot democracy?

    It is entirely legal to go for a visit but immoral to use the influence to earn personal benefits. Democrats/academics did not like thaksin but they do not like Army either. They rightly feel it’s a lesser evil between two. Your stimulating idea gobbled from newspaper and internet will not be able to see the difference. But most diplomats in the press conference were convinced that democracy will return soon in Thailand. I believe so. It may not be a good practice but if the country comes back on tract, Thais will forgive general Sonthi. A lok-tantra controlled by bloody hands of Katwal is worse than Thai coup

  29. It is very surprising to see all here we all are wasting our energy and intellectual wisdom here while the blog owner’s priorities lies some other issues like political instability in distant neighbor Thailand recently. Even though many of us in this forum are completely ignorant about what the Maoist has been doing until now after April 06 development. Folks, while our own house is on fire we are thinking dousing how to put down flame in Thailand’s internal affair. In my opinion, our is more serious and we might be in road ike on the way of becoming another Afgansthan very soon. Our ancient civilization and it’s roots, our treasures, heritage, and institutions all are being systematically attacked, destroyed and being targeted one by one by this SPA alliance dominated by the Maoist.
    Are we going to accept this?

    Under this Maoist administration their political agenda is already in work. Terrorism is back. The liberty of common people like public speaking, gathering and free flow of ideas are suffocated. Maoists, at gun point, are forcefully taking school children to attend party rally and civilians. Many such hostages are being killed; ransom extortion and gang politics with guns and bullets became part and parcel of their way of governing. From a peaceful tolerant nation, we became one of the most violent country. Do we really need any Maoist in the Government? Is not enough that we had already been experienced the legacy of their decade old mayhem that almost destroyed us. What is the problem to these Maoists to accept democratic values? Why they can not join in a democratic process to heal and throw their culture of Guns, bullets and united to rebuild our nation from her ruins. They will find out it has been easy to destroy but how difficult to rebuild its foundations, heritage and its values while providing honest and corruption free governance. Enough is enough, let start from this blog and start to spread values, ethics, discipline and honesty to help rebirth of a new Nepal where we can live peacefully and enjoy.

  30. Learn a lesson from this nepalis:

    “I just want to make it abundantly clear to Hugo Chavez or any other president: Don’t come to the United States and think, because we have problems with our president, that any foreigner can come to our country and not think that Americans do not feel offended when you offend our chief of state,” Rangel said.

  31. Kirat,

    You state:

    “Nepali Times opinion poll is the worst poll in terms of proper representation of general Nepali public opinion. I like Nepali Times but the readership is very small and represents almost exclusively one tiny section of Nepali society (in my opinion ther worst one-including yours truly).”

    How have you come to this conclusion without reading the poll results? This was’nt an internet poll buddy or a Nepali Times readers poll, this was a poll carried out in public.

  32. Further Kirat,

    Contradictory to your claims, the Nepali Times poll clearly states that most of the people who still want a monarchy were from the rural areas – people who most likely are’nt Nepali Times readers!!! Also they say that 30% of the people still have no idea of CA elections and what it means. Most likely many of the republican voters were infact exactly people like yourself who do read the Nepali Times.
    Again, this is what Nepali Times has said, if you can trust the media in these polls etc. then believe it, personally I find all media here biased, so who really knows which way the cookie crumbles?

  33. scoop, apologies. I truly had not read the poll and had just glanced at it.Well the CA elections can decide on the future of the polity of Nepal.

  34. Pundit (#87)- are you the same one who is groping in dark for “middle path”? I see you coming around the bend, quite refreshing. About time.

  35. Oh Please don’t confuse Pundit with Bhudai Pundit.
    Hey Pundit… would it kill you to change your name up a little bit? I don’t want to sound like a little kid but I have been here longer.
    It’s just that I think it could get confusing to people.

  36. Nepal: Taking The Wrong Lesson From Thailand
    By Maila Baje

    The shock waves from the military coup in Thailand continue to clatter the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) government. In his first reaction,Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala ruled out a similar takeover in Nepal because the monarchy has been eviscerated.
    In parliament, the mood was less confident. According to Raghuji Pant of the Unified Marxist-Leninists, the Thai experience underscored that the monarchy “in any state is always busy conspiring to take control of the government.”
    Long before Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratkalin ordered his troops to move against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the Maoist rebels had begun
    voicing fears that the Koirala government’s flip-flops might precipitate another palace takeover.
    For all the civilianization of the Nepalese military since the political change of April, the SPA still sees the palace looming large
    over the force. Yet Koirala, Pant and everybody in between miss the larger picture. The prospect of a military coup need not be associated with the political aspirations of the palace.
    Gen. Rukmangad Katuwal has been bending over backward to establish his allegiance to civilian supremacy. While domestic adversaries of Katuwal continue to hound him for his role in “suppressing” the April Uprising, international critics have been more sympathetic to the army as an institution. Even the United Nations human rights office in
    Nepal chose to release its report criticizing security forces’ excesses only after Katuwal was firmly in the saddle.
    At the height of the protests in April, according to the Economist,the military had persuaded the palace and the SPA to come to an
    agreement by unveiling the goriness of the alternative. In view of subsequent events, the military can be expected to consider itself a
    stronger vanguard.
    Speaking after the developments in Thailand, Victor Bulmer-Thomas,director of the London-based think tank Chatham House, believes
    Pakistan is the most likely South Asian candidate to experience a coup. For those familiar with the Golden Age of coups between the 1950s and 1970s, the prospect of a revolt against Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who himself overthrew a civilian government, is hardly
    abnormal. In Bulmer-Thomas’ view, Nepal and Bangladesh are in the same regional risk category.
    The more prescient Stratfor, too, had pointed to the possibility of a military coup a few months ago. “Recognizing that Nepal’s fate depends primarily on the mindset of its generals, India’s attention likely is
    fixated now on the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA),” the Austin, Texas-based think tank said in an April 18 analysis titled “Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?”
    Stratfor added: “Senior army officials feel that New Delhi, formerly one of its chief suppliers, ditched the army when it cut off military aid to Nepal following the royal takeover. If New Delhi and the RNA can make peace, India might begin to draw the SPA away from the Maoists with the promise of RNA backing to topple the monarchy.”
    Of course, King Gyanendra’s reinstatement of parliament set the ball rolling in another direction. Yet those tempted to dismiss Stratfor’s prescience in Nepal would be advised to read the last paragraph of that analysis: “Though a military coup is likely in the cards for Nepal, such political maneuverings by the SPA and India would need
    time to develop.”
    Despite the army’s affirmations of allegiance to democracy, its concept may not necessarily conform to the expectations of the political class. When Gen. Prajwalla Shamsher Rana in 2002 virtually blamed the political parties for creating the Maoist insurgency, it
    was difficult to believe he could have made that sweeping indictment without the approval of his supreme commander. Today, it becomes vital to consider whether such sentiments have disappeared simply because the army has been stripped of its institutional links with the
    Moreover, new dynamics have set in since the political change of April. The SPA’s timidity in defending the military after Maoist
    supremo Prachanda accused it of having done nothing but plunder and pillage during its entire existence must have left a searing effect even on constituents least loyal to the palace.
    Furthermore, the rebels’ predilection for equating themselves with the state’s army must have unnerved many in the ranks. Specifically, the ease with which the Maoists expect their guerrilla fighters to be incorporated into a national army without the academic and
    professional rigors existing members have undergone could precipitate considerable – and public – disgruntlement.
    Considering the Nepalese military’s participation in United Nations
    peacekeeping operations as well as the international community’s urgency of assembling contingents at short notice in view of the proliferation of global trouble spots, the generals’ interest in maintaining a professional force can only grow deeper.
    The SPA, one would expect, doesn’t need to be told that such new dynamics in the military have nothing to do with the monarchy.

  37. I think there is no chance of a coup in Nepal, as the people of Nepal, have been taught a better lesson, by the actiosn of the army and the king. that they should not rule the people should, Added to this there is a ready made Maoist army, and large pro democracy movement, While Thailand saw it’s democarcy movement never able to embed itself into being a strong group, Although we have to admit Thailand has had more democracy since the 1960s than Nepal, Nepal’s democratic forces are stronger, and have ousted 2 monarchial dictatorships, in my life time alone, Whereas Thialand as of the 1930s events saw it’s monarchy accept they do not desrve absolute power, so the monarchy are just an annoying irritant in Thailand that know they must give up power, while in Nepal, the monarchy are the main force of dictatorship and could never understand they are not all powerful, as so often they have been so. unlike in Thailand. It will be great when Neapl votes to become a republic, it will be a joyous event proving every Nepali is a citizen, not a servant of the king

  38. But Nepal is going to rule by maoist. For that Baburam is making good connection with India. The past speech of Baburam clearly giving that hints.

  39. It is not a matter of syamtphy for anyone, it s about deliver the right information, the complete information of how things are developed and why did developed the way it did,people have to obey laws, that is why the sistem works you like it or not, 120 people of a 5000 living in this island, going agaist the law, thinking that they can do whatever they want is a human right violation agaist the rest of us that want to live in peace, that s why we have a goverment, so dont give me that crap of “use of guns on a civilian population” because they are not a part of the civilian population in this place.get better informed in the first place

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