UWB! Analysis
King’s yesterday’s address leaves a caveat or two. The ball is in SPA’s court, for the king has said: “Convinced that the source of State Authority and Sovereignty of the Kingdom of Nepal is inherent in the people of Nepal and cognizant of the spirit of the ongoing people’s movement as well as to resolve the on-going violent conflict and other problems facing the country according to the road map of the agitating Seven Party Alliance, we, through this Proclamation, reinstate the House of Representatives which was dissolved on 22 May 2002 on the advice of the then Prime Minister in accordance with the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal-1990.” The king has referred to SPA’s roadmap which is an indirect way of addressing the issue of Constituent Assembly (CA).
He has further said: “We call upon the Seven Party Alliance to bear the responsibility of taking the nation on the path to national unity and prosperity, while ensuring permanent peace and safeguarding multiparty democracy.” This statement has handed over the responsibilities to SPA in particular and people in general.
Finally, king has addressed SPA’s road map that talks about reinstatement of lower house, formation of all party government and eventually conduct CA poll. This will be on the basis of dialogue and agreement with Maoist. Only such election will end the conflict, establish loktantra and restore people’s sovereignty and state power.
Coming Friday, a historic meeting of lower house will take place in Galley Baithak, that will give mandate to SPA to form a government that will lead nation to transformation. The government will be headed either by GP Koirala or by Madhav Kumar Nepal. This government will start dialogue with Maoists. At the same time, it will also proceed the process for the CA poll. In the meantime, Maoists’ as well as RNA’s arms will be managed by international community. The question of Maoist’s army resolution will be discussed with the mediation of International community. This is crucial for the verdict of CA to be implemented.
SPA’s government will decide on the process of CA poll. Here are few possible options: representatives of different parties and/or agendas will fight for the place in CA. The exact format is not clear. But, the members of CA will draft a new constitution that will decide on fate of monarchy.
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Comments
138 responses to “Roadmap of New Nepal”
Kirat, negative? you call me negative? a day ago, you nepalese were out to bring your king’s head on a stake dripping with blood. you were and are so quick to forget how you got to 2002 and the horrors the political parties did in the name of “democracy”. now you have reappointed the octogenarian Girija, who should by now be in the funeral ghats being cremated (it won’t be long now, and who will step in then?)…and you refuse to really read what Prachanda has actually said. If you took the time to do that, as you so carefully read into every word the king has said, you would see how cleverly and skillfully prachanda has worded his missives. They will not settle for less than a People’s Republic. Period. That is not being negative. It is just reality. NOw the parties are in for a ride, as they came up with this 12 point understanding with the maoists. and if they don’t uphold it, your little maoist insurgency isn’t going away anytime soon. Don’t let me have to say, I TOLD YOU SO. I already said that once, after having said yesterday that the maoists would not agree to this. Yep, i got online today and found that is exactly what they had said! No big surprise to me. people were saying I was being negative then, and to “just give them a chance”…yea, right.
dear UWB, why moderation???
love,taaya
I have more confidence and trust in civic societies than political parties now so let the civic societies be in charge of CIAA, Taxation, Election Committee, etc.
MAoist have decided to continue their armed struggle till election of Constituent Assembly is guarenteed. Well, dark side of it may be that it has delayed the restoration of peace but after all we have been accustomed to tolerate the inharmony for these many years, why not for another short period.Anyways, They’ve vowed not to yield till goal(ie, CA) is not achieved. And who else is gonna benefit from it, we Nepalese! So, why act so cynical and skeptic.
Till now, neither the Maoists nor the royalist were taking SPA, having no guns, as a force but these last two weeks proved them to be otherwise. In whole of the period of 10 years, Maoists and the royalists too were using one party against other but the royal rule of one year cemented the SPA together and the king is trying to stick with them. If Maoists try to corner SPA,they will meet the same fate.
shadow, this is the way i see it. There were three players who mattered in Nepal (considering that the fourth player i.e. the Nepali people were always ignored) a. the King, b. the Maoists and c. the SPA. Well all seemed to have negative impact on the peace and progress agenda. What happened recently is that the fourth force (the people), taken for granted, player got rid of the king. Now there are two players who are bad for the country still left. We optimists believe that the SPA has been warned to behave or face the consequences, we hope that they will behave now. That leaves us with one more unruly player i.e. the Maoists. We need now to tackle this problem while ensuring that the king does not get anymore bright ideas and that the SPA behaves. After the street protest that forced the present situation we believe that the SPA will behave and that the king will keep quiet. This only leaves the Maoist problem to solve.
It is a much better situation now than what it was a month ago. So we are happy at the progress made and we hope and will try to make it better by eliminating the Maoist problem one way or the other. So there is a good reason to be optimistic and hope for the best.
hope, it’s a norm for romantics and idealistist like yourself to identify pragmatists and realists as cynics and skeptics. The Maoist leopard can disguise itself bit it can never change it’s spots.
typo-please read ‘but it can never change it’s spots”.
Peace is ultimate goal. We don’t care bloddy who is in the power. These few hundred thousand people doesn’t represent whole Kathmandu nor Nepal. Lets pray to the god to bestow peace and tranquillity. I wish not to see any people suffer, if SPA fails us this time ..I won’t weep… and they won’t get a chance to weep too…..
the king has put a poisonous pill in the SPA movement to end it:
The Maobadis have no voice in the reinstated House of Representatives!
One man’s poison is anothers food (or something like that). Well the SPA is in charge now, no more excuses. It was clear that the king did not want peace because peace would not suit him. Peace works best for the SPA-do they need more incentive?
Laxmi,
there is a way to involve CPN ( Maoist) in a government if Maoists agree to go for it. Ofcourse it will take some efforts from Maoists too. They need to come out clean.
Article 38 Appointment of Non-Member of Parliament as Minister
Notwithstanding anything contained in Articles 36 and 37, any person who is not a member of either House of Parliament may be appointed Deputy-Prime Minister, Minister, State Minister or Assistant-Minister:
Provided that such Deputy-Prime Minister, Minister, State Minister or Assistant-Minister shall be required to become a member of Parliament within six months from the date of his appointment.
If Maoists agree and if political parties are keen on election for Constituent assembly, then it can be done within 6 months and Maoists can be in government for 6 months which is more than enough .
History Repeats: Is Jana Andolan II compromised just like Jana Andolan I ?
Seven parties and most of protestors are euphoric about royal proclamation to reinstate parliament. However, there is very less realization that it’s not a real achievement but rather a continuity of the post 1990 scenario.
Royal Intentions
The intention of King is not sincere. The act of reestablishing parliament is a bargaining chip and way to keep the royalties involved in power. If you look at the sequence of royal announcements, this dishonesty is clear. First, Gyanendra ordered ban on protests and shoot-on-sight curfew. Second, he invited Surya Bahadur Thapa and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, royal leaning politicians, to arrange a new power sharing agreement. Third, a couple of days later after record demonstrations, he announced that PM post will go to seven party alliance. Please note that security personnel imprisoned Bam Dev Gautam and Jhala Nath Khanal at the TIA airport the same day when he has preparing to hand over the executive power. Fourth, when protestors rejected and protests got bigger, he announced the reinstatement of parliament. If you look at intentions of Gyanendra, in each and every stage, he tried all he could to retain his absolute powers. At any given instance, he could have declared what people were asking.
Even at the day of declaration, King was bringing more security personnel from Pokhara and neighboring cities. The pro republicans such as Narahari Acharya and member of civil societies were still under royal custody when the declarations were made. This proves the degree of honesty of the current king.
Royal declaration
The royal declaration does not address the demand of constituent assembly and handing over of security personnel to the parliament. One might attribute King’s pride for not declaring all the demands of protestors but when security personnel start to kill protestors, the question of preserving pride of one person becomes irrelevant.
Constituent assembly is not possible under the constitution of 1990. Even with 2/3rd of parliament endorsing new constitution, the king has the final decision to any changes in constitution. The upper house is still dominated by 1/3 rd of royal appointees. After repeated breach of constitution by King, practically 1990 constitution is dead. There is no provision in constitution which allows King to safeguard executive powers in him or to create post of chairmen of council. Gyanendra has no respect for the constitution of 1990. This point has been proved by media crackdown of the last two years, by political revenge seeking through unconstitutional royal anti graft commission, by appointment of royal sycophants in constitutional bodies like election commission, attorney general, and Supreme Court and by massive waste of national resources in royalties who cannot be prosecuted under the 1990 constitution. The current head of Supreme Court is a diehard royalist who declared decision of king can not be challenged as he is a hindu god. It’s useless to ask Supreme Court for any constitutional advice. 1990 constitution is a tool which king is using to legitimize his illegitimate acts to ordinary Nepalese and international community. The effort to revive such dead constitution is tantamount to continuation of the monarchy and undermines the popular movement of Jana Andolan II. Restoration of parliament is a royal setup to keep on preserving monarchy.
The provision of Security Council under 1990 constitution does not guarantee that army will be under civilian control. King has showed no intention to leave the control of army. The Security Council can only recommend actions and the final decision is taken by head of army which is king. The Supreme Court can not decide on any military affairs. The promotion in army is controlled de-facto by king. You just need to look at the current list of army general and colonels to see the number of Ranas, Shahs and Thapas. Royal Nepal Army is a plutocracy where only die hard royalists and extended member of royal family have top places. As the top army brass is composed of royal members, military has always remained loyal to king and not to elected government. The incident of GP Koirala resigning after refusal of army to rescue police trapped by Maoists proves this point. The plutocracy and irregularities in military funds (arms purchase & army employee provident fund) is sustaining this situation. As long as army and police are under control of King, there is absolutely no guarantee that King will not backtrack once the protests have subsided.
Officially 14 protestors have died and several hundreds injured. The real death toll and the number of victims can be far higher. As the security apparatus ultimately reported to king, King should be held accountable for the loss of lives. Extending heart-full condolences to the death victims after giving orders to shoot them is not sufficient. Prosecuting only the police/army officers who gave orders to shoot is ignoring the fact that these people were just tools and order came from somewhere else.
Royal Booby Trap
The king has thrown ball in partie’s court. The objective of this action was not to restore democracy but to ridicule it. King handed power as he knew that political parties will fight among each other for power. By trying to sow a seed for fight, King hopes to regain credibility in the eyes of ordinary citizens. This is the same strategy like UML who used to say and repeat 10 000 times that GP Koirala is bad to mean that they are good.
KG’s is the last ditched attempt to save monarchy and we Nepalese seem to be falling in his trap. Paras will never be recognized as a legitimate ruler. A murderer automatically disqualifies such position of responsibility. It’s in the interest of king to declare the navayuvaraj the crown prince. Stripping Paras of his crown prince title will at least bring some solace to the falling institution of monarchy. Let’s hope King doesn’t get that clever.
The current arrangement has made impossible the entering of Maoists in the mainstream. This marriage of convenience between SPA and Monarch imperils the peace efforts of Nepal and risks prolonged civil war.
Fear of Maoist takeover
SPA leaders as well as Royalists are afraid of imaginary Maoist takeover. This situation is impossible due to national and international considerations. But propagandists have been using and spreading this fear to maintain/justify their favorite regimes. Fear is the most easiest and convincing tool in the times of uncertainty.
In the international front, Maoist takeover is a day dream. The US won’t accept at any case Maoist coming to power as this will challenge the global US hegemony. They don’t want these Maoists to keep on exporting some revolution. The current global regime suits US. US has all new discoveries, all best companies, all minds of universe, a very favorable international trade regime, a highly protected local market, a very good living standard for nationals and financial/technical power to exploit resources around the world. EU has same commercial position as US and tries to project itself as champion of human rights. Try to talk about trade in services and reduction of agricultural subsidy in developed nations and these democracy champions will make you international enemy like Mahathir Mohammad or Hugo Chavez. The US/EU don’t need to colonize developing countries. World Bank, IMF and WTO act on behalf of these countries to get the favorable trading regime. The extremists such as Maoist are threat to this delicate international balance. The hypocrite world regime will do all it can to destroy the Maoists and that’s the destiny of the Maoists. Just look at FARC or any other South American countries or any African country. A couple of hundred million dollar injection to Nepalese army will give it so much firepower that Maoists simply fade off. Imagine the havoc created in Maoists by those Old Russian helicopters and flying cage-like cheetah chopper. And now imagine, bulletproof and missile proof Apaches replacing them. Hundred million dollar or even a billion dollar injection in the current world is actually peanuts compared to the size of economies of developed world.
Similarly, historically India wants instability in Nepal to create favorable water/energy deals. Koshi and Mahakali are the live examples. Their current priority is economic development and energy is a key issue in this development. As with all powerful countries, India tries to use its muscle to have favorable trading regimes and that includes energy. But just for water/electricity, they don’t want instability to go so far that the state of Nepal fails. They just want a favorable regime in Kathmandu. If there is chaos in Nepal, there will be chaos in India as there is no border between these two countries. The Indian army is already overstretched. They already have enough warlike situations in Kashmir and North East India. Fear of Indian takeover of Nepal is unrealistic. This is too big a problem to digest for India and this step even risks the whole integrity of India as a country in a danger. This is one of the royalist fear creating campaign. The worst case scenario of India is to have government led by Maoists who try to fight India’s historical hegemonic role. The Maoist should realize that this is impossible.
The convenience marriage of SPA with King might sound like music to international community but it creates a great danger to the state of Nepal. If the Maoist- Nepal Army fighting continues and so called representative government can get military support of foreign countries, the result is going to be an ever bloodier war. The Maoist will be defeated. They don’t have nay chance to win militarily. But the victims will be thousand of Nepalese people. This killing of each other must stop.
Respect for Nepalese People
It’s disgusting to see utter disrespect of Nepalese people in the political discussions. This is the people who fought against autocracy of Ranas in 2007. This is the people who fought against autocracy of King Birendra in 1990. This is the people who fought against autocracy of King Gyanendra in 2006. If the Maoists come to power and start a dictatorship of proletariat, the same people will rise again and throw them away. The same people will rise if ever a foreign country tries to invade Nepal. I see absolutely no reason why constitution assembly should not be declared as soon as possible. Choosing a government is a fundamental right and not a privilege given by somebody else.
The current stage is not an achievement. If there is referendum on the future of monarchy or if there is constituent assembly polls, we can be certain that it was a right decision to accept establishment of parliament. But most signs are not positive. Judging by history of unholy political compromises done till now, I think this Jana Andolan II has been compromised by king if the protestors lose their voice in the days and months to come. I would like to end this article with a positive note.
Revolution means a process through which change is initiated. Once started this has no end. It is a process of improvement in itself. This has started in 1990 and it will have only positive results in the future. The Nepalese people deserve a pride and respect for fighting for what they believe is right.
this farce called jan andolan was nothing but a personal vendata and personal ambitions between KG and GP, Totally disguised as people’s movement.
the whole time, the people of nepal were manupulated in the hands of GK or GP. It was the fight for the chair between these two most shrewd political stalwart ever to be alive in the kingdom of nepal.
Mind you the game is not over yet. It is just round two and GP is leading my points only and hasnt delivered a knock out punch. GK is still on his feet and can pounce back anytime with vengance as he has a strong and powerfull team behind his back. The battle was won by GP but not the war, and all the time the blood was spilling frm the poor janta”s of this country but neither from these two G’s hand!!!
A thought to ponder upon.
the road ahead
indeed the ppl of nepal want to decide our own faith.
now that the first step is complete, we have to think of the future and be prepared for all kinds of situations. from the good to the worst situations.
firstly we have to salute the people we have lost their lives for the cause of loktantra in nepal. and yes we should not forget those hurt in the demonstrations too. and seriously not to forget, we have to be cautious of the ppl who have been made “disappeared” by the then govt the people we were taken away by security personnels, their situations have to be made public. else their whereabouts will never be known.
we can then start the roadmap of new nepal, that will b a tribute to all who lost their lives, who got hurt and those disappeared in the then regime of gyan dai.
Yes the maoists are Trotskyist who are set in having not only a people’s republic but a one party (their party) govt. They bend a little hear and there for the time being, but their ultimate goal is that.
The CPIM leader from India who has been in touch with the maoist leaders clearly has stated to Karan Thapar that they want a republic period. And as we can see they are not willing to give up their arms even if CA is announced. This is why they have said call for CA elections unconditionally (i.e. with no conditions attached).
st, I have information from usually reliable sources that the Maoists have also made a climbdown. It might be true as their options are limited. Wouldn’t it be great if it were true? Here’s hoping anyway!
the 12 point agreement :
1. we shall throw out the king.
2. we shall form a new govt.
3. we shall then have the right to loot the public’s tax money and aid money that will flow in (that which we have not been able to do in the last few years )
4. We shall take money from the Indian govt. to sign off water deals that will not be in favour of nepal, but that which will enable us to fill our own pockets.(we shall work first and foremost for the interest of India and the indians.)
5. we shall introduce corruption in the army to make sure that they work for our interests.
6. If anybody objects to our corruption, we shall use the army against them using the slogan “democracy is in danger”
7. We shall re-instate a corrupt judiciary to make sure that nobody objects to our corruption.
8. we shall turn nepal into a haven for smugglers.
9. We shall,whenever we need them, use the stupid masses of nepal to fulfill our dreams. we shall each own millions,houses,cars,lands.
10. we shall create our own political dynasties
so that our children also have enough
11. we shall help those who help us fill our pockets.
12. Last, but not the least we shall continue to fool the foolish people of nepal
Great news! Maoists lift blockade!
poor observer, i pity u for loosing your utopia kingdom.
if u cannot adjust in poor democracy ,u can also exile to africa with your beloved master.
i told u kirat , the maoists are not as bad as americans portray..
but still there is lot to watch.
Taaya, I do not need Americans to portray to meet me what the Maoist’s are like. I have seen with my own eyes what they are capable of. That is why I still do not trust them. I will trust them only when I see the PLA give up their arms and are either disbanded or intergrated within the RNA.
typo where did that ‘meet’ come from?
Of course, they will lay down their arms at the right time. Which soul in this earth wants to go to his grave carrying a weapon, noone , save for some
haemo-‘phillic’ psychos. The government to be formed should create a favorable situation for the disarmament and for this they should try to fulfil all the demands of maoist which (to me!) seem reasonable.
hope, I hope you will forgive my temerity for not trusting them until they do so!
Well , who the heck am i to reward/forgive you for your rationale. Only thing I can do is suggest and I think that’s also of no use.
hope, sarcasm is lost on you. What a humourless couple you and Taaya have turned out to be! You guys surely must be Maoists!
if u talk about humor kirat, i have won a couple of cartooning contests(just in case u think u r the only humorous guy around).
it’s not that we r not humorous ,it’s that we find u irritating more than humorous.
but u sure are a diplomatic fellow to take humour as your last shade.
‘You guys surely must be Maoists! ‘
haha,this time u made me laugh.
haha……was that comment of urs a sarcastic remark? Sorry, I failed to realize.
And about ur allegations- MAybe, anybody here can be a maoist….one who supports maoism; What does the word maoist depict in ur mind- ‘ a ruthless weapon-clad person’, is it?
Well, from ur comments I surmise u r a CIA spy appointed to spread propaganda against the possible boom of communism. Is that so?
Taaya, I am surprised. I thought your party’s politburo decreed humour to a be ‘decadent western extravagance’ and denied you guys from entering cartoon contests!
kirat,now u r following the path of your ideal americans…
americans used this same method of labelling maoists terrorists , the way u r trying to label me a maoist.
what’s wrong with being a Maoist? I thought you and hope loved the comradeship?
we can have sympathy and support(to the ideals) without getting inside the blanket of any ‘ism’.
i donot need to get a label of ‘maoist’ to see their dreams and pain and courage and misfortunes.
people can (unlike u) can have compassion for those outside their clan too.
i condemn their violence but also realise their compulsion for that.
You guys have swallowed a tape recorder!
let’s end up this incessant flow of irrelevant comments leading nowhere. I’m fed up.
yeah, it’s getting to be a drag. Truce to Taaya and hope.
u r right hope.
but u know this kirat uncle is such an arrogant Mr. know all that i feel an urge to snap back.
Nice..nice post.